Lew Nichols III
RB
Pittsburgh Steelers
This is how RBs have played against the Broncos in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Emmett Johnson | 8 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 2 |  JAX | Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 3 |  LA | Blake Corum | 6 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 4 |  SF | Kaelon Black | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 5 |  LAC | Keaton Mitchell | 6 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 6 |  SEA | Emanuel Wilson | 14 | 52 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 7 |  ARI | Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 8 | KC | Kenneth Walker III | 21 | 69 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 12.4 |
| Average | 9.0 | 26.8 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 13.6 | 0.0 | 5.9 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 5.6 | ||
| High | 21 | 69 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 12.4 | ||
| Low | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Lew Nichols III should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Lew Nichols III has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Lew Nichols III will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Lew Nichols III's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Lew Nichols III usually produces.
Projected is Lew Nichols III's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | IND | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 |
| III avg | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | |
| Broncos RB2 avg | 9.0 | 26.8 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 13.6 | 0.0 | 5.9 | |
| Difference | +8.0 | +23.8 | +0.0 | +2.5 | +1.9 | +13.6 | +0.0 | +5.6 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what III averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Lew Nichols IIIMedium confidence · 0.4 proj pts1/10 start
- Lew Nichols III averages 0.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 0.3) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Broncos have allowed 5.9 points to RB2s over 8 games (+16% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +12% adjustment.
- Projection: 0.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreLew Nichols III vs the Broncos
Prediction for Lew Nichols III
Nobody knows which slot Lew Nichols III will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 0.4 points for Lew Nichols III if playing as a RB2. Lew Nichols III has averaged 0.3 over 2 games, and the Broncos have given up 5.9 to RB2s (+16% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Lew Nichols III scored: Wk 3 0.0, Wk 5 0.6. Average 0.3; weighted toward recent games it is 0.3.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Broncos allowed 5.9 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is +16%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +12% adjustment (x1.12).
4. Result. 0.3 x 1.12 = 0.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Lew Nichols III is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (0.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 0.2 points, leaning on Lew Nichols III's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 0.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 9.0 carries, 26.8 rushing yards and 1.9 receptions against the Broncos across 8 games.
- The Broncos allow 5.9 PPR points to RB2s, +16% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Kenneth Walker III (12.4 pts, 21 car, 69 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.9 vs 5.0; car 9.0 vs 7.3; rush yds 26.8 vs 20.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.3 to 12.4 (median 5.6).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 8 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.