Keaton Mitchell
RB
Los Angeles Chargers
This is how RBs have played against the Broncos in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Emmett Johnson | 8 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 2 |  JAX | Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 3 |  LA | Blake Corum | 6 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 4 |  SF | Kaelon Black | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| Average | 5.8 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | ||
| High | 8 | 24 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 8.8 | ||
| Low | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Keaton Mitchell should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Keaton Mitchell has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Keaton Mitchell will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Keaton Mitchell's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Keaton Mitchell usually produces.
Projected is Keaton Mitchell's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | LV | 5 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 3 | BUF | 8 | 52 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 1 | 13.7 |
| 4 | SEA | 10 | 39 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 11.3 |
| 5 | DEN | 6 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 6 | KC | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| 8 | LA | 4 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 5.3 |
| Mitchell avg | 5.6 | 20.7 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 9.9 | 0.1 | 6.1 | |
| Broncos RB2 avg | 5.8 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |
| Difference | +0.2 | -5.0 | +0.0 | -0.8 | -0.9 | +1.6 | -0.1 | -2.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mitchell averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreKeaton Mitchell vs the Broncos
Prediction for Keaton Mitchell
Nobody knows which slot Keaton Mitchell will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 6.8 points for Keaton Mitchell if playing as a RB2. Keaton Mitchell has averaged 7.7 over 4 games, and the Broncos have given up 4.0 to RB2s (-15% vs the league average of 4.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Keaton Mitchell scored: Wk 1 0.9, Wk 2 4.9, Wk 3 13.7, Wk 4 11.3. Average 7.7; weighted toward recent games it is 7.4.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Broncos allowed 4.0 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.7, so that is -15%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -8% adjustment (x0.92).
4. Result. 7.4 x 0.92 = 6.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Keaton Mitchell is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (6.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.3 points, leaning on Keaton Mitchell's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 5.8 carries, 15.8 rushing yards and 1.3 receptions against the Broncos across 4 games.
- The Broncos allow 4.0 PPR points to RB2s, -15% versus the league average of 4.7 (ranked 20 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Emmett Johnson (8.8 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 4.0 vs 2.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.3 to 8.8 (median 2.9).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 4 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.