Brady Russell
RB
Seattle Seahawks
- Quarterback Sam Darnold is out, so a backup is throwing. Russell's numbers may take a hit.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Will Shipley | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.2 |
| 2 |  DAL | Emari Demercado | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Average | 2.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | ||
| Median | 2.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | ||
| High | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.2 | ||
| Low | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brady Russell should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brady Russell has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brady Russell will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brady Russell's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brady Russell usually produces.
Projected is Brady Russell's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 3 | WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Russell avg | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | |
| Commanders RB2 avg | 2.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | |
| Difference | +2.5 | +6.0 | +0.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -16.0 | +0.0 | -2.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Russell averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrady Russell vs the Commanders
Prediction for Brady Russell
Nobody knows which slot Brady Russell will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 2.9 points for Brady Russell if playing as a RB2. Brady Russell has averaged 4.0 over 1 game, and the Commanders have given up 1.5 to RB2s (-69% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brady Russell scored: Wk 1 4.0. Average 4.0; weighted toward recent games it is 4.0.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Commanders allowed 1.5 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is -69%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -27% adjustment (x0.73).
4. Result. 4.0 x 0.73 = 2.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brady Russell is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.7 points, leaning on Brady Russell's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 2.5 carries, 6.0 rushing yards and 0.5 receptions against the Commanders across 2 games.
- The Commanders allow 1.5 PPR points to RB2s, -69% versus the league average of 4.8 (ranked 32 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.8 to 2.2 (median 1.5).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.