Bijan Robinson
RB
Atlanta Falcons▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Bears in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 23.7 |
| 2 |  MIN | Aaron Jones | 23 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 3 |  PHI | Saquon Barkley | 15 | 82 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 4 |  NYJ | Braelon Allen | 14 | 59 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8.7 |
| 5 |  GB | MarShawn Lloyd | 10 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16.7 |
| Average | 14.4 | 65.2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 0.2 | 13.7 | ||
| Median | 14.0 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 10.5 | ||
| High | 23 | 105 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 23.7 | ||
| Low | 10 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Bijan Robinson should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bijan Robinson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bijan Robinson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bijan Robinson usually produces.
Projected is Bijan Robinson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 21 | 83 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 16 | 72 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 3 | GB | 29 | 194 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 4 | NO | 19 | 145 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27.7 |
| 5 | BAL | 17 | 86 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 6 | CHI | 9 | 61 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 7 | SF | 20 | 63 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 17.2 |
| 8 | TB | 19 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Robinson avg | 18.8 | 97.5 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 25.4 | 0.1 | 19.2 | |
| Bears RB1 avg | 14.4 | 65.2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 0.2 | 13.7 | |
| Difference | -4.3 | -32.3 | +0.1 | -2.3 | -1.7 | -15.4 | +0.1 | -5.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Robinson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBijan Robinson vs the Bears
Prediction for Bijan Robinson
Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 20.9 points for Bijan Robinson if playing as a RB1. Bijan Robinson has averaged 24.2 over 5 games, and the Bears have given up 13.7 to RB1s (-15% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bijan Robinson scored: Wk 1 31.3, Wk 2 11.1, Wk 3 35.3, Wk 4 27.7, Wk 5 15.8. Average 24.2; weighted toward recent games it is 23.0.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Bears allowed 13.7 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -15%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -9% adjustment (x0.91).
4. Result. 23.0 x 0.91 = 20.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bijan Robinson is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (20.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.7 points, leaning on Bijan Robinson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 21.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 14.4 carries, 65.2 rushing yards and 1.4 receptions against the Bears across 5 games.
- The Bears allow 13.7 PPR points to RB1s, -15% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 25 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Aaron Jones (23 car, 105 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 14.4 vs 12.3; rush yds 65.2 vs 55.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Chuba Hubbard (23.7 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.7 vs 11.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.7 to 23.7 (median 10.5).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 30 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 5 games (40%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.