Bijan Robinson
RB
Atlanta Falcons▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the Packers in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Packers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | Jordan Mason | 15 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.9 |
| 2 |  NYJ | Breece Hall | 16 | 29 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Average | 15.5 | 44.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 13.1 | ||
| Median | 15.5 | 44.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 13.1 | ||
| High | 16 | 59 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 14.2 | ||
| Low | 15 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Bijan Robinson should do vs the PackersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Packers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bijan Robinson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Packers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Packers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bijan Robinson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bijan Robinson usually produces.
Projected is Bijan Robinson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Packers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 21 | 83 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 16 | 72 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 3 | GB | 29 | 194 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 4 | NO | 19 | 145 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27.7 |
| 5 | BAL | 17 | 86 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 6 | CHI | 9 | 61 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 7 | SF | 20 | 63 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 17.2 |
| 8 | TB | 19 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Robinson avg | 18.8 | 97.5 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 25.4 | 0.1 | 19.2 | |
| Packers RB1 avg | 15.5 | 44.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 13.1 | |
| Difference | -3.3 | -53.5 | +0.0 | -1.6 | -0.6 | +6.1 | -0.1 | -6.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Robinson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBijan Robinson vs the Packers
Prediction for Bijan Robinson
Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Packers.
I predict about 19.6 points for Bijan Robinson if playing as a RB1. Bijan Robinson has averaged 21.2 over 2 games, and the Packers have given up 13.1 to RB1s (-16% vs the league average of 15.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bijan Robinson scored: Wk 1 31.3, Wk 2 11.1. Average 21.2; weighted toward recent games it is 20.9.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Packers allowed 13.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.6, so that is -16%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -6% adjustment (x0.94).
4. Result. 20.9 x 0.94 = 19.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bijan Robinson is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (19.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.8 points, leaning on Bijan Robinson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 20.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 15.5 carries, 44.0 rushing yards and 2.5 receptions against the Packers across 2 games.
- The Packers allow 13.1 PPR points to RB1s, -16% versus the league average of 15.6 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 11.9 to 14.2 (median 13.1).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.