Bijan Robinson
RB
Atlanta Falcons▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the Saints in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Saints in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 |
| 2 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 |
| 3 |  LV | Ashton Jeanty | 19 | 56 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 12.3 |
| Average | 21.3 | 93.3 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 28.7 | 0.0 | 21.2 | ||
| Median | 19.0 | 68.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 17.7 | ||
| High | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 33.6 | ||
| Low | 16 | 56 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 12.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Bijan Robinson should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bijan Robinson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bijan Robinson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bijan Robinson usually produces.
Projected is Bijan Robinson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 21 | 83 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 16 | 72 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 3 | GB | 29 | 194 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 4 | NO | 19 | 145 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27.7 |
| 5 | BAL | 17 | 86 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 6 | CHI | 9 | 61 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 7 | SF | 20 | 63 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 17.2 |
| 8 | TB | 19 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Robinson avg | 18.8 | 97.5 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 25.4 | 0.1 | 19.2 | |
| Saints RB1 avg | 21.3 | 93.3 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 28.7 | 0.0 | 21.2 | |
| Difference | +2.6 | -4.2 | +0.5 | -0.5 | +0.5 | +3.3 | -0.1 | +2.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Robinson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBijan Robinson vs the Saints
Prediction for Bijan Robinson
Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 29.1 points for Bijan Robinson if playing as a RB1. Bijan Robinson has averaged 25.9 over 3 games, and the Saints have given up 21.2 to RB1s (+38% vs the league average of 15.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bijan Robinson scored: Wk 1 31.3, Wk 2 11.1, Wk 3 35.3. Average 25.9; weighted toward recent games it is 24.5.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Saints allowed 21.2 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.4, so that is +38%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +19% adjustment (x1.19).
4. Result. 24.5 x 1.19 = 29.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bijan Robinson is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (29.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 15.2 points, leaning on Bijan Robinson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 29.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 21.3 carries, 93.3 rushing yards and 3.7 receptions against the Saints across 3 games.
- The Saints allow 21.2 PPR points to RB1s, +38% versus the league average of 15.4 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jahmyr Gibbs (33.6 pts, 29 car, 156 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 21.2 vs 15.0; car 21.3 vs 17.5; rush yds 93.3 vs 62.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.3 to 33.6 (median 17.7).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 50 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 3 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.