Bijan Robinson
RB
Atlanta Falcons▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the 49ers in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against 49ers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LA | Kyren Williams | 11 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 2 |  MIA | De'Von Achane | 20 | 74 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 3 |  ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 21 | 90 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 21.9 |
| 4 |  DEN | RJ Harvey | 7 | 25 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 68 | 0 | 19.3 |
| 5 |  SEA | Emanuel Wilson | 20 | 61 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 13.2 |
| 6 |  WAS | Rachaad White | 7 | 27 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 15.7 |
| Average | 14.3 | 53.0 | 0.3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 28.5 | 0.3 | 16.3 | ||
| Median | 15.5 | 51.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | 15.6 | ||
| High | 21 | 90 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 68 | 1 | 21.9 | ||
| Low | 7 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 12.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Bijan Robinson should do vs the 49ersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the 49ers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bijan Robinson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of 49ers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
49ers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bijan Robinson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bijan Robinson usually produces.
Projected is Bijan Robinson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the 49ers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 21 | 83 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 16 | 72 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 3 | GB | 29 | 194 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 4 | NO | 19 | 145 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27.7 |
| 5 | BAL | 17 | 86 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 6 | CHI | 9 | 61 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 7 | SF | 20 | 63 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 17.2 |
| 8 | TB | 19 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Robinson avg | 18.8 | 97.5 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 25.4 | 0.1 | 19.2 | |
| 49ers RB1 avg | 14.3 | 53.0 | 0.3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 28.5 | 0.3 | 16.3 | |
| Difference | -4.4 | -44.5 | -0.2 | +1.0 | +1.4 | +3.1 | +0.2 | -2.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Robinson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBijan Robinson vs the 49ers
Prediction for Bijan Robinson
Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the 49ers.
I predict about 20.2 points for Bijan Robinson if playing as a RB1. Bijan Robinson has averaged 21.4 over 6 games, and the 49ers have given up 16.3 to RB1s (+3% vs the league average of 15.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bijan Robinson scored: Wk 1 31.3, Wk 2 11.1, Wk 3 35.3, Wk 4 27.7, Wk 5 15.8, Wk 6 7.3. Average 21.4; weighted toward recent games it is 19.8.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the 49ers allowed 16.3 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.8, so that is +3%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +2% adjustment (x1.02).
4. Result. 19.8 x 1.02 = 20.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bijan Robinson is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (20.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.6 points, leaning on Bijan Robinson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 20.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 14.3 carries, 53.0 rushing yards and 4.5 receptions against the 49ers across 6 games.
- The 49ers allow 16.3 PPR points to RB1s, +3% versus the league average of 15.8 (ranked 13 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Jeremiyah Love (21 car, 90 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 14.3 vs 13.0; rush yds 53.0 vs 45.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.3 to 21.9 (median 15.6).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 6 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.