Bijan Robinson
RB
Atlanta Falcons▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Saquon Barkley | 15 | 83 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 2 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | 12 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 3 |  SEA | George Holani | 3 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 10.8 |
| 4 |  IND | Jonathan Taylor | 20 | 95 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22.7 |
| 5 |  NYG | Cam Skattebo | 13 | 59 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7.1 |
| 6 |  SF | Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 64 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 30.7 |
| 8 | PHI | Saquon Barkley | 13 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 12.4 |
| Average | 13.1 | 53.0 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 22.3 | 0.0 | 14.4 | ||
| Median | 13.0 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 10.8 | ||
| High | 20 | 95 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 30.7 | ||
| Low | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 7.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Bijan Robinson should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bijan Robinson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bijan Robinson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bijan Robinson usually produces.
Projected is Bijan Robinson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 21 | 83 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 16 | 72 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 3 | GB | 29 | 194 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 4 | NO | 19 | 145 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27.7 |
| 5 | BAL | 17 | 86 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 6 | CHI | 9 | 61 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 7 | SF | 20 | 63 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 17.2 |
| 8 | TB | 19 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Robinson avg | 18.8 | 97.5 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 25.4 | 0.1 | 19.2 | |
| Commanders RB1 avg | 13.1 | 53.0 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 22.3 | 0.0 | 14.4 | |
| Difference | -5.6 | -44.5 | +0.2 | +0.0 | +0.0 | -3.1 | -0.1 | -4.8 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 17.4 | 90.2 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 23.5 | 0.1 | 15.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Robinson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Bijan RobinsonGood confidence · 15.9 proj pts7/10 start
- Bijan Robinson averages 19.2 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 16.0) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Commanders have allowed 14.4 points to RB1s over 7 games (-11% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.8) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 15.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBijan Robinson vs the Commanders
Prediction for Bijan Robinson
Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 15.9 points for Bijan Robinson if playing as a RB1. Bijan Robinson has averaged 19.2 over 8 games, and the Commanders have given up 14.4 to RB1s (-11% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bijan Robinson scored: Wk 1 31.3, Wk 2 11.1, Wk 3 35.3, Wk 4 27.7, Wk 5 15.8, Wk 6 7.3, Wk 7 17.2, Wk 8 7.6. Average 19.2; weighted toward recent games it is 17.1.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Commanders allowed 14.4 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -11%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -7% adjustment (x0.93).
4. Result. 17.1 x 0.93 = 15.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bijan Robinson is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.9 points, leaning on Bijan Robinson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 13.1 carries, 53.0 rushing yards and 3.1 receptions against the Commanders across 7 games.
- The Commanders allow 14.4 PPR points to RB1s, -11% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 25 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Jonathan Taylor (22.7 pts, 20 car, 95 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 14.4 vs 13.0; car 13.1 vs 12.0; rush yds 53.0 vs 46.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, George Holani (3 car, 10 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 13.1 vs 14.8; rush yds 53.0 vs 60.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.1 to 30.7 (median 10.8).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 7 games (43%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.