Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Backfield mate Bhayshul Tuten is questionable, so Rodriguez could see more carries.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Colts in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Justice Hill | 6 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 2 |  KC | Emmett Johnson | 2 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 3 |  HOU | David Montgomery | 11 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 4 |  WAS | Austin Ekeler | 4 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 5 |  PIT | Lew Nichols III | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 |
| 6 |  TEN | Tyjae Spears | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 7 |  MIN | Aaron Jones | 8 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 |
| Average | 4.7 | 18.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.9 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | ||
| High | 11 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6.8 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Chris Rodriguez Jr. should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Chris Rodriguez Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Chris Rodriguez Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Chris Rodriguez Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 6 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 2 | DEN | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | NE | 8 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 4 | CIN | 6 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 5 | PHI | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2.1 |
| 6 | HOU | 11 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 8 | IND | 6 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 12.8 |
| Jr. avg | 6.4 | 29.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 6.2 | |
| Colts RB2 avg | 4.7 | 18.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.9 | |
| Difference | -1.7 | -11.6 | -0.4 | +0.9 | +0.9 | +5.7 | +0.0 | -2.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreChris Rodriguez Jr. vs the Colts
Prediction for Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Chris Rodriguez Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 5.0 points for Chris Rodriguez Jr. if playing as a RB2. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has averaged 5.1 over 6 games, and the Colts have given up 3.9 to RB2s (-23% vs the league average of 5.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Chris Rodriguez Jr. scored: Wk 1 2.3, Wk 2 1.3, Wk 3 9.7, Wk 4 9.5, Wk 5 2.1, Wk 6 5.5. Average 5.1; weighted toward recent games it is 5.9.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Colts allowed 3.9 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.0, so that is -23%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -16% adjustment (x0.84).
4. Result. 5.9 x 0.84 = 5.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Chris Rodriguez Jr. is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.8 points, leaning on Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 4.7 carries, 18.3 rushing yards and 1.1 receptions against the Colts across 7 games.
- The Colts allow 3.9 PPR points to RB2s, -23% versus the league average of 5.0 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, David Montgomery (11 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 4.7 vs 3.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.6 to 6.8 (median 3.8).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 7 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.