Dalton Kincaid
TE
Buffalo BillsQ
- Teammate DJ Moore (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Keon Coleman (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Bears in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Tommy Tremble | 5 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 2 |  MIN | T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 3 |  PHI | Zach Ertz | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 4 |  NYJ | Jelani Woods | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.1 |
| 5 |  GB | Tucker Kraft | 5 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 11.6 |
| 6 |  ATL | Kyle Pitts | 7 | 5 | 60 | 2 | 23.0 |
| 7 |  NE | Eli Raridon | 4 | 3 | 56 | 1 | 14.6 |
| 8 |  SEA | AJ Barner | 5 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 4.3 |
| Average | 4.1 | 2.9 | 34.6 | 0.4 | 8.6 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 3.0 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 5.7 | ||
| High | 7 | 5 | 64 | 2 | 23.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Dalton Kincaid should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Dalton Kincaid has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Dalton Kincaid will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Dalton Kincaid's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Dalton Kincaid usually produces.
Projected is Dalton Kincaid's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 6 | 5 | 130 | 0 | 18.0 |
| 2 | DET | 8 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 22.5 |
| 3 | LAC | 3 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 4 | NE | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 5 | LA | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 6 | LV | 8 | 7 | 38 | 0 | 10.8 |
| 8 | BAL | 6 | 4 | 86 | 1 | 18.6 |
| Kincaid avg | 5.0 | 3.9 | 57.3 | 0.3 | 11.3 | |
| Bears TE1 avg | 4.1 | 2.9 | 34.6 | 0.4 | 8.6 | |
| Difference | -0.9 | -1.0 | -22.7 | +0.1 | -2.7 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 49.7 | 0.2 | 9.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Kincaid averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Dalton KincaidGood confidence · 9.6 proj pts1/10 start
- Dalton Kincaid averages 11.3 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 11.2) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Bears have allowed 8.6 points to TE1s over 8 games (-18% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (10.5) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 9.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreDalton Kincaid vs the Bears
Prediction for Dalton Kincaid
Nobody knows which slot Dalton Kincaid will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 9.6 points for Dalton Kincaid if playing as a TE1. Dalton Kincaid has averaged 11.3 over 7 games, and the Bears have given up 8.6 to TE1s (-18% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Dalton Kincaid scored: Wk 1 18.0, Wk 2 22.5, Wk 3 3.8, Wk 4 1.7, Wk 5 3.7, Wk 6 10.8, Wk 8 18.6. Average 11.3; weighted toward recent games it is 11.0.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Bears allowed 8.6 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is -18%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -13% adjustment (x0.87).
4. Result. 11.0 x 0.87 = 9.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Dalton Kincaid is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.5 points, leaning on Dalton Kincaid's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 2.9 receptions, 34.6 receiving yards and 0.4 receiving TDs against the Bears across 8 games.
- The Bears allow 8.6 PPR points to TE1s, -18% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 6, Kyle Pitts (23.0 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.6 vs 6.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 7, Eli Raridon (14.6 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.6 vs 7.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 8 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.9 to 23.0 (median 5.7).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 8 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.