Michael Mayer
TE
Las Vegas Raiders▲ Hot
This is how TEs have played against the Broncos in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Travis Kelce | 5 | 3 | 71 | 0 | 10.1 |
| 2 |  JAX | Brenton Strange | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 3 |  LA | Tyler Higbee | 11 | 8 | 62 | 1 | 20.2 |
| 4 |  SF | George Kittle | 6 | 4 | 70 | 1 | 17.0 |
| 5 |  LAC | Hayden Rucci | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 7.7 |
| 6 |  SEA | AJ Barner | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 4.6 |
| 7 |  ARI | Trey McBride | 13 | 10 | 111 | 1 | 27.1 |
| 8 | KC | Travis Kelce | 7 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 11.7 |
| Average | 6.1 | 4.5 | 52.6 | 0.5 | 12.8 | ||
| Median | 5.5 | 3.5 | 64.5 | 0.5 | 10.9 | ||
| High | 13 | 10 | 111 | 1 | 27.1 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Michael Mayer should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Michael Mayer has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Michael Mayer will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Michael Mayer's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Michael Mayer usually produces.
Projected is Michael Mayer's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 7 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 2 | LAC | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 3 | NO | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 12.2 |
| 4 | KC | 10 | 8 | 82 | 0 | 16.2 |
| 5 | NE | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.2 |
| 6 | BUF | 9 | 7 | 95 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 7 | LA | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 8 | NYJ | 6 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 10.3 |
| Mayer avg | 5.4 | 4.5 | 43.9 | 0.1 | 9.6 | |
| Broncos TE1 avg | 6.1 | 4.5 | 52.6 | 0.5 | 12.8 | |
| Difference | +0.8 | +0.0 | +8.8 | +0.4 | +3.1 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 50.6 | 0.1 | 10.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mayer averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Michael MayerGood confidence · 10.4 proj pts1/10 start
- Michael Mayer averages 9.6 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 9.7) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Broncos have allowed 12.8 points to TE1s over 8 games (+21% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +15% adjustment.
- Last season's average (6.1) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 10.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMichael Mayer vs the Broncos
Prediction for Michael Mayer
Nobody knows which slot Michael Mayer will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 10.4 points for Michael Mayer if playing as a TE1. Michael Mayer has averaged 9.6 over 8 games, and the Broncos have given up 12.8 to TE1s (+21% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Michael Mayer scored: Wk 1 9.2, Wk 2 5.3, Wk 3 12.2, Wk 4 16.2, Wk 5 1.2, Wk 6 16.5, Wk 7 6.2, Wk 8 10.3. Average 9.6; weighted toward recent games it is 9.0.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Broncos allowed 12.8 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +21%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +15% adjustment (x1.15).
4. Result. 9.0 x 1.15 = 10.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Michael Mayer is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.3 points, leaning on Michael Mayer's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.5 receptions, 52.6 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Broncos across 8 games.
- The Broncos allow 12.8 PPR points to TE1s, +21% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 7, Trey McBride (27.1 pts, 10 rec, 111 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.8 vs 10.7; rec 4.5 vs 3.7; yds 52.6 vs 44.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Tyler Higbee (20.2 pts, 8 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.8 vs 11.7; rec 4.5 vs 4.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 8 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.7 to 27.1 (median 10.9).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 8 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.