Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
Detroit Lions▲ Hot
- Teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | David Montgomery | 20 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 28.9 |
| Average | 20.0 | 60.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 28.9 | ||
| Median | 20.0 | 60.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 28.9 | ||
| High | 20 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 28.9 | ||
| Low | 20 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 28.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jahmyr Gibbs should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jahmyr Gibbs has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jahmyr Gibbs will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jahmyr Gibbs's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jahmyr Gibbs usually produces.
Projected is Jahmyr Gibbs's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 |
| 2 | BUF | 16 | 52 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 23.3 |
| 3 | NYJ | 20 | 99 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 41.4 |
| 4 | CAR | 15 | 46 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 17.7 |
| 5 | ARI | 25 | 151 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 37.7 |
| 7 | GB | 29 | 116 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 17.3 |
| 8 | MIN | 23 | 153 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 24.8 |
| Gibbs avg | 22.4 | 110.4 | 1.1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 40.7 | 0.3 | 28.0 | |
| Bills RB1 avg | 20.0 | 60.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 28.9 | |
| Difference | -2.4 | -50.4 | +0.9 | -3.3 | -1.9 | -21.7 | +0.7 | +0.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Gibbs averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJahmyr Gibbs vs the Bills
Prediction for Jahmyr Gibbs
Nobody knows which slot Jahmyr Gibbs will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 29.8 points for Jahmyr Gibbs if playing as a RB1. Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 33.6 over 1 game, and the Bills have given up 28.9 to RB1s (+65% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jahmyr Gibbs scored: Wk 1 33.6. Average 33.6; weighted toward recent games it is 25.6.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Bills allowed 28.9 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is +65%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +16% adjustment (x1.16).
4. Result. 25.6 x 1.16 = 29.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jahmyr Gibbs is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (29.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 17.9 points, leaning on Jahmyr Gibbs's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 30.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 20.0 carries, 60.0 rushing yards and 3.0 receptions against the Bills across 1 game.
- The Bills allow 28.9 PPR points to RB1s, +65% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.