Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
Detroit Lions▲ Hot
- Teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Giants in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Giants in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | 12 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 24.2 |
| 2 |  LA | Kyren Williams | 12 | 85 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 15.7 |
| 3 |  TEN | Tony Pollard | 17 | 74 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13.6 |
| 4 |  ARI | Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 5 |  WAS | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 11 | 82 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 6 |  NO | Alvin Kamara | 7 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 14.9 |
| 7 |  HOU | Woody Marks | 19 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 9.1 |
| Average | 12.3 | 60.6 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 17.4 | 0.4 | 14.9 | ||
| Median | 12.0 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 14.2 | ||
| High | 19 | 85 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 24.2 | ||
| Low | 7 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jahmyr Gibbs should do vs the GiantsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Giants, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jahmyr Gibbs has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Giants opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jahmyr Gibbs will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Giants avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jahmyr Gibbs's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jahmyr Gibbs usually produces.
Projected is Jahmyr Gibbs's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Giants were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 |
| 2 | BUF | 16 | 52 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 23.3 |
| 3 | NYJ | 20 | 99 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 41.4 |
| 4 | CAR | 15 | 46 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 17.7 |
| 5 | ARI | 25 | 151 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 37.7 |
| 7 | GB | 29 | 116 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 17.3 |
| 8 | MIN | 23 | 153 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 24.8 |
| Gibbs avg | 22.4 | 110.4 | 1.1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 40.7 | 0.3 | 28.0 | |
| Giants RB1 avg | 12.3 | 60.6 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 17.4 | 0.4 | 14.9 | |
| Difference | -10.1 | -49.9 | -0.7 | -3.7 | -2.6 | -23.3 | +0.1 | -13.0 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 21.3 | 104.9 | 1.1 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 38.7 | 0.3 | 24.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Gibbs averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jahmyr GibbsGood confidence · 24.2 proj pts10/10 start
- Jahmyr Gibbs averages 28.0 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 26.6) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Giants have allowed 14.9 points to RB1s over 7 games (-7% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -5% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.6) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 24.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJahmyr Gibbs vs the Giants
Prediction for Jahmyr Gibbs
Nobody knows which slot Jahmyr Gibbs will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Giants.
I predict about 24.2 points for Jahmyr Gibbs if playing as a RB1. Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 28.0 over 7 games, and the Giants have given up 14.9 to RB1s (-7% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jahmyr Gibbs scored: Wk 1 33.6, Wk 2 23.3, Wk 3 41.4, Wk 4 17.7, Wk 5 37.7, Wk 7 17.3, Wk 8 24.8. Average 28.0; weighted toward recent games it is 25.5.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Giants allowed 14.9 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -7%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -5% adjustment (x0.95).
4. Result. 25.5 x 0.95 = 24.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jahmyr Gibbs is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (24.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.7 points, leaning on Jahmyr Gibbs's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 24.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 12.3 carries, 60.6 rushing yards and 2.3 receptions against the Giants across 7 games.
- The Giants allow 14.9 PPR points to RB1s, -7% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 21 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Javonte Williams (24.2 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 14.9 vs 13.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 7, Woody Marks (19 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 12.3 vs 11.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.1 to 24.2 (median 14.2).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 30 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 7 games (71%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.