Bucky Irving
RB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers▲ Hot
This is how RBs have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Falcons in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Jaylen Warren | 10 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 10.3 |
| 2 |  CAR | Chuba Hubbard | 12 | 53 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 14.4 |
| 3 |  GB | MarShawn Lloyd | 4 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 4 |  NO | Alvin Kamara | 7 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 22.8 |
| 5 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 24 | 102 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 6 |  CHI | D'Andre Swift | 16 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 23.0 |
| 7 |  SF | Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 39 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 22.0 |
| Average | 11.4 | 45.4 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 26.4 | 0.3 | 16.8 | ||
| Median | 10.0 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | ||
| High | 24 | 102 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 23.0 | ||
| Low | 4 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Bucky Irving should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bucky Irving has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bucky Irving will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bucky Irving's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bucky Irving usually produces.
Projected is Bucky Irving's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 8 | 45 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 20.3 |
| 2 | CLE | 17 | 89 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13.0 |
| 3 | MIN | 15 | 46 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 4 | GB | 16 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.1 |
| 5 | DAL | 21 | 165 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 31.5 |
| 6 | PIT | 19 | 46 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6.9 |
| 7 | CAR | 24 | 106 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 24.0 |
| 8 | ATL | 27 | 170 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.0 |
| Irving avg | 18.4 | 91.0 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 9.8 | 0.1 | 16.3 | |
| Falcons RB1 avg | 11.4 | 45.4 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 26.4 | 0.3 | 16.8 | |
| Difference | -6.9 | -45.6 | +0.1 | +1.7 | +1.3 | +16.7 | +0.2 | +0.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Irving averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBucky Irving vs the Falcons
Prediction for Bucky Irving
Nobody knows which slot Bucky Irving will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 16.5 points for Bucky Irving if playing as a RB1. Bucky Irving has averaged 15.7 over 7 games, and the Falcons have given up 16.8 to RB1s (+5% vs the league average of 16.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bucky Irving scored: Wk 1 20.3, Wk 2 13.0, Wk 3 7.8, Wk 4 6.1, Wk 5 31.5, Wk 6 6.9, Wk 7 24.0. Average 15.7; weighted toward recent games it is 16.0.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Falcons allowed 16.8 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.0, so that is +5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 16.0 x 1.03 = 16.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bucky Irving is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.8 points, leaning on Bucky Irving's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 11.4 carries, 45.4 rushing yards and 3.6 receptions against the Falcons across 7 games.
- The Falcons allow 16.8 PPR points to RB1s, +5% versus the league average of 16.0 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, MarShawn Lloyd (3.8 pts, 4 car, 11 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.8 vs 18.9; car 11.4 vs 12.7; rush yds 45.4 vs 51.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Derrick Henry (24 car, 102 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 11.4 vs 9.3; rush yds 45.4 vs 36.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.8 to 23.0 (median 21.0).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 7 games (71%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.