Bucky Irving
RB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers▲ Hot
This is how RBs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Bears in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 23.7 |
| 2 |  MIN | Aaron Jones | 23 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 3 |  PHI | Saquon Barkley | 15 | 82 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 4 |  NYJ | Braelon Allen | 14 | 59 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8.7 |
| 5 |  GB | MarShawn Lloyd | 10 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16.7 |
| 6 |  ATL | Bijan Robinson | 9 | 61 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 7 |  NE | Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 93 | 1 | 22.5 |
| 8 |  SEA | Zach Charbonnet | 6 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 5.9 |
| Average | 11.6 | 54.0 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 17.6 | 0.3 | 13.0 | ||
| Median | 10.0 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 9.8 | ||
| High | 23 | 105 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 93 | 1 | 23.7 | ||
| Low | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 0 | 5.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Bucky Irving should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bucky Irving has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bucky Irving will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bucky Irving's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bucky Irving usually produces.
Projected is Bucky Irving's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 8 | 45 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 20.3 |
| 2 | CLE | 17 | 89 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13.0 |
| 3 | MIN | 15 | 46 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 4 | GB | 16 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.1 |
| 5 | DAL | 21 | 165 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 31.5 |
| 6 | PIT | 19 | 46 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6.9 |
| 7 | CAR | 24 | 106 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 24.0 |
| 8 | ATL | 27 | 170 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.0 |
| Irving avg | 18.4 | 91.0 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 9.8 | 0.1 | 16.3 | |
| Bears RB1 avg | 11.6 | 54.0 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 17.6 | 0.3 | 13.0 | |
| Difference | -6.8 | -37.0 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 | +7.9 | +0.1 | -3.3 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 15.8 | 78.4 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 8.4 | 0.1 | 14.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Irving averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Bucky IrvingGood confidence · 14.6 proj pts7/10 start
- Bucky Irving averages 16.3 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 17.7) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Bears have allowed 13.0 points to RB1s over 8 games (-19% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -14% adjustment.
- Last season's average (13.8) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -4%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 20.8 points for TB (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 6: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (54F, 7 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- QB change: Baker Mayfield is now throwing (6.5 yds/att vs 6.2 earlier), x1.03.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter D'Marco Jackson (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Malik Muhammad II (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 14.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBucky Irving vs the Bears
Prediction for Bucky Irving
Nobody knows which slot Bucky Irving will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 14.6 points for Bucky Irving if playing as a RB1. Bucky Irving has averaged 16.3 over 8 games, and the Bears have given up 13.0 to RB1s (-19% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bucky Irving scored: Wk 1 20.3, Wk 2 13.0, Wk 3 7.8, Wk 4 6.1, Wk 5 31.5, Wk 6 6.9, Wk 7 24.0, Wk 8 21.0. Average 16.3; weighted toward recent games it is 16.9.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Bears allowed 13.0 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -19%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 16.9 x 0.86 = 14.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bucky Irving is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.3 points, leaning on Bucky Irving's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 11.6 carries, 54.0 rushing yards and 2.1 receptions against the Bears across 8 games.
- The Bears allow 13.0 PPR points to RB1s, -19% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 7, Rhamondre Stevenson (22.5 pts, 22 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.0 vs 11.7; rush yds 54.0 vs 58.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Aaron Jones (23 car, 105 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 11.6 vs 10.0; rush yds 54.0 vs 46.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.9 to 23.7 (median 9.8).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 8 games (38%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.