Bucky Irving
RB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers▲ Hot
- Teammate Emeka Egbuka (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Cowboys in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Cowboys in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Cam Skattebo | 18 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.1 |
| 2 |  WAS | Rachaad White | 7 | 43 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 14.3 |
| 3 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 26 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21.9 |
| 4 |  HOU | Woody Marks | 6 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.2 |
| Average | 14.3 | 58.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 14.6 | ||
| Median | 12.5 | 62.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.2 | ||
| High | 26 | 89 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 21.9 | ||
| Low | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Bucky Irving should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bucky Irving has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bucky Irving will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bucky Irving's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bucky Irving usually produces.
Projected is Bucky Irving's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 8 | 45 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 20.3 |
| 2 | CLE | 17 | 89 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13.0 |
| 3 | MIN | 15 | 46 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 4 | GB | 16 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.1 |
| 5 | DAL | 21 | 165 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 31.5 |
| 6 | PIT | 19 | 46 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6.9 |
| 7 | CAR | 24 | 106 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 24.0 |
| 8 | ATL | 27 | 170 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.0 |
| Irving avg | 18.4 | 91.0 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 9.8 | 0.1 | 16.3 | |
| Cowboys RB1 avg | 14.3 | 58.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 14.6 | |
| Difference | -4.1 | -32.3 | +0.4 | -0.9 | -0.5 | +0.3 | -0.1 | -1.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Irving averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBucky Irving vs the Cowboys
Prediction for Bucky Irving
Nobody knows which slot Bucky Irving will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 11.0 points for Bucky Irving if playing as a RB1. Bucky Irving has averaged 11.8 over 4 games, and the Cowboys have given up 14.6 to RB1s (-9% vs the league average of 16.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bucky Irving scored: Wk 1 20.3, Wk 2 13.0, Wk 3 7.8, Wk 4 6.1. Average 11.8; weighted toward recent games it is 11.6.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Cowboys allowed 14.6 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.0, so that is -9%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -5% adjustment (x0.95).
4. Result. 11.6 x 0.95 = 11.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bucky Irving is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.5 points, leaning on Bucky Irving's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 14.3 carries, 58.8 rushing yards and 1.8 receptions against the Cowboys across 4 games.
- The Cowboys allow 14.6 PPR points to RB1s, -9% versus the league average of 16.0 (ranked 21 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Derrick Henry (21.9 pts, 26 car, 89 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 14.6 vs 12.2; car 14.3 vs 10.3; rush yds 58.8 vs 48.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Woody Marks (6 car, 22 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 14.3 vs 17.0; rush yds 58.8 vs 71.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.2 to 21.9 (median 14.2).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 4 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.