Brevyn Spann-Ford
TE
Dallas Cowboys▲ Hot
- Teammate George Pickens (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Packers in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Packers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 13.6 |
| 2 |  NYJ | Kenyon Sadiq | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 3 |  ATL | Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 9.1 |
| 4 |  TB | Cade Otton | 6 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 5 |  CHI | Colston Loveland | 5 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 3.9 |
| Average | 4.2 | 2.8 | 24.0 | 0.4 | 7.6 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 7.7 | ||
| High | 6 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 13.6 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brevyn Spann-Ford should do vs the PackersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Packers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brevyn Spann-Ford has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Packers opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Packers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brevyn Spann-Ford's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brevyn Spann-Ford usually produces.
Projected is Brevyn Spann-Ford's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Packers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 3 | BAL | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 4 | HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | GB | 5 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 7 | PHI | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 8 | ARI | 5 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 7.1 |
| Spann-Ford avg | 2.6 | 1.9 | 15.7 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
| Packers TE1 avg | 4.2 | 2.8 | 24.0 | 0.4 | 7.6 | |
| Difference | +1.6 | +0.9 | +8.3 | +0.4 | +4.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Spann-Ford averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrevyn Spann-Ford vs the Packers
Prediction for Brevyn Spann-Ford
Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Packers.
I predict about 1.3 points for Brevyn Spann-Ford if playing as a TE1. Brevyn Spann-Ford has averaged 1.6 over 4 games, and the Packers have given up 7.6 to TE1s (-27% vs the league average of 10.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brevyn Spann-Ford scored: Wk 1 3.4, Wk 3 2.9, Wk 4 0.0, Wk 5 0.0. Average 1.6; weighted toward recent games it is 1.6.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Packers allowed 7.6 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.4, so that is -27%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -17% adjustment (x0.83).
4. Result. 1.6 x 0.83 = 1.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brevyn Spann-Ford is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.5 points, leaning on Brevyn Spann-Ford's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 1.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 2.8 receptions, 24.0 receiving yards and 0.4 receiving TDs against the Packers across 5 games.
- The Packers allow 7.6 PPR points to TE1s, -27% versus the league average of 10.4 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, T.J. Hockenson (13.6 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.6 vs 6.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 5 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.7 to 13.6 (median 7.7).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 5 games (40%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.