Brevyn Spann-Ford
TE
Dallas Cowboys▲ Hot
- Teammate George Pickens (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Texans in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Texans in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | Dalton Kincaid | 6 | 5 | 130 | 0 | 18.0 |
| 2 |  CIN | Erick All | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 3 |  IND | Tyler Warren | 10 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 14.7 |
| Average | 6.3 | 5.3 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 11.7 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 5.0 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 14.7 | ||
| High | 10 | 9 | 130 | 0 | 18.0 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brevyn Spann-Ford should do vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brevyn Spann-Ford has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brevyn Spann-Ford's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brevyn Spann-Ford usually produces.
Projected is Brevyn Spann-Ford's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 3 | BAL | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 4 | HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | GB | 5 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 7 | PHI | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 8 | ARI | 5 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 7.1 |
| Spann-Ford avg | 2.6 | 1.9 | 15.7 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
| Texans TE1 avg | 6.3 | 5.3 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 11.7 | |
| Difference | +3.8 | +3.5 | +47.6 | +0.0 | +8.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Spann-Ford averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrevyn Spann-Ford vs the Texans
Prediction for Brevyn Spann-Ford
Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 2.9 points for Brevyn Spann-Ford if playing as a TE1. Brevyn Spann-Ford has averaged 3.1 over 2 games, and the Texans have given up 11.7 to TE1s (+12% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brevyn Spann-Ford scored: Wk 1 3.4, Wk 3 2.9. Average 3.1; weighted toward recent games it is 2.8.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Texans allowed 11.7 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +12%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +6% adjustment (x1.06).
4. Result. 2.8 x 1.06 = 2.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brevyn Spann-Ford is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.8 points, leaning on Brevyn Spann-Ford's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 5.3 receptions, 63.3 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Texans across 3 games.
- The Texans allow 11.7 PPR points to TE1s, +12% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 13 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Erick All (2.5 pts, 2 rec, 5 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.7 vs 16.4; rec 5.3 vs 7.0; yds 63.3 vs 92.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Dalton Kincaid (18.0 pts, 130 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.7 vs 8.6; yds 63.3 vs 30.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 3 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.5 to 18.0 (median 14.7).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.