Brevyn Spann-Ford
TE
Dallas Cowboys▲ Hot
- Teammate George Pickens (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Colts in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Mark Andrews | 6 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 2 |  KC | Travis Kelce | 11 | 9 | 101 | 1 | 25.1 |
| 3 |  HOU | Foster Moreau | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8.7 |
| 4 |  WAS | Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 5 |  PIT | Pat Freiermuth | 7 | 5 | 44 | 2 | 21.5 |
| 6 |  TEN | Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 7 |  MIN | T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 13.5 |
| 8 |  JAX | Nate Boerkircher | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 10.1 |
| Average | 5.0 | 3.4 | 34.0 | 0.8 | 11.3 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 3.0 | 33.0 | 1.0 | 9.5 | ||
| High | 11 | 9 | 101 | 2 | 25.1 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brevyn Spann-Ford should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brevyn Spann-Ford has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brevyn Spann-Ford's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brevyn Spann-Ford usually produces.
Projected is Brevyn Spann-Ford's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 3 | BAL | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 4 | HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | GB | 5 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 7 | PHI | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 8 | ARI | 5 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 7.1 |
| Spann-Ford avg | 2.6 | 1.9 | 15.7 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
| Colts TE1 avg | 5.0 | 3.4 | 34.0 | 0.8 | 11.3 | |
| Difference | +2.4 | +1.5 | +18.3 | +0.8 | +7.9 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 3.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Spann-Ford averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Brevyn Spann-FordGood confidence · 4.6 proj pts1/10 start
- Brevyn Spann-Ford averages 3.4 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 4.1) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Colts have allowed 11.3 points to TE1s over 8 games (+7% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +5% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.4) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +14%: Vegas total 51.5, implied 28.5 points for DAL (league avg 22.6); Favored by 5.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Akeem Davis-Gaither (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Justin Walley (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+0%): Teammate George Pickens (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Spann-Ford.
- Projection: 4.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrevyn Spann-Ford vs the Colts
Prediction for Brevyn Spann-Ford
Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 3.9 points for Brevyn Spann-Ford if playing as a TE1. Brevyn Spann-Ford has averaged 3.4 over 7 games, and the Colts have given up 11.3 to TE1s (+7% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brevyn Spann-Ford scored: Wk 1 3.4, Wk 3 2.9, Wk 4 0.0, Wk 5 0.0, Wk 6 7.5, Wk 7 3.1, Wk 8 7.1. Average 3.4; weighted toward recent games it is 3.7.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Colts allowed 11.3 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +7%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).
4. Result. 3.7 x 1.05 = 3.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brevyn Spann-Ford is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.0 points, leaning on Brevyn Spann-Ford's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 3.4 receptions, 34.0 receiving yards and 0.8 receiving TDs against the Colts across 8 games.
- The Colts allow 11.3 PPR points to TE1s, +7% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Travis Kelce (25.1 pts, 9 rec, 101 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.3 vs 9.3; rec 3.4 vs 2.6; yds 34.0 vs 24.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, Daniel Bellinger (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.3 vs 12.9; rec 3.4 vs 3.9; yds 34.0 vs 38.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 8 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 25.1 (median 9.5).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 8 games (63%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.