Brevyn Spann-Ford
TE
Dallas Cowboys▲ Hot
- Teammate George Pickens (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Buccaneers in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Buccaneers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Mike Gesicki | 7 | 5 | 78 | 1 | 18.8 |
| 2 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 6 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 3 |  MIN | T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 4 |  GB | Tucker Kraft | 7 | 6 | 42 | 1 | 16.5 |
| Average | 6.0 | 4.5 | 46.3 | 0.5 | 12.2 | ||
| Median | 6.5 | 5.0 | 48.0 | 0.5 | 13.4 | ||
| High | 7 | 6 | 78 | 1 | 18.8 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brevyn Spann-Ford should do vs the BuccaneersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brevyn Spann-Ford has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brevyn Spann-Ford's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brevyn Spann-Ford usually produces.
Projected is Brevyn Spann-Ford's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 3 | BAL | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 4 | HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | GB | 5 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 7 | PHI | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 8 | ARI | 5 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 7.1 |
| Spann-Ford avg | 2.6 | 1.9 | 15.7 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
| Buccaneers TE1 avg | 6.0 | 4.5 | 46.3 | 0.5 | 12.2 | |
| Difference | +3.4 | +2.6 | +30.5 | +0.5 | +8.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Spann-Ford averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrevyn Spann-Ford vs the Buccaneers
Prediction for Brevyn Spann-Ford
Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 2.3 points for Brevyn Spann-Ford if playing as a TE1. Brevyn Spann-Ford has averaged 2.1 over 3 games, and the Buccaneers have given up 12.2 to TE1s (+18% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brevyn Spann-Ford scored: Wk 1 3.4, Wk 3 2.9, Wk 4 0.0. Average 2.1; weighted toward recent games it is 2.1.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Buccaneers allowed 12.2 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +18%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +11% adjustment (x1.11).
4. Result. 2.1 x 1.11 = 2.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brevyn Spann-Ford is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.6 points, leaning on Brevyn Spann-Ford's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.5 receptions, 46.3 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Buccaneers across 4 games.
- The Buccaneers allow 12.2 PPR points to TE1s, +18% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, T.J. Hockenson (3.1 pts, 2 rec, 11 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.2 vs 15.2; rec 4.5 vs 5.3; yds 46.3 vs 58.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Mike Gesicki (18.8 pts, 78 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.2 vs 10.0; yds 46.3 vs 35.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 4 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.1 to 18.8 (median 13.4).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 4 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.