Brevyn Spann-Ford
TE
Dallas Cowboys▲ Hot
- Teammate George Pickens (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Dallas Goedert | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 |
| 2 | DAL | Jake Ferguson | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 20.3 |
| 3 |  SEA | AJ Barner | 9 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 11.9 |
| 4 |  IND | Tyler Warren | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 5 |  NYG | Isaiah Likely | 13 | 11 | 94 | 2 | 32.4 |
| 6 |  SF | George Kittle | 8 | 5 | 69 | 1 | 17.9 |
| 8 | PHI | Eli Stowers | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 8.3 |
| Average | 6.7 | 5.3 | 63.7 | 1.0 | 17.7 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 5.0 | 69.0 | 1.0 | 17.9 | ||
| High | 13 | 11 | 94 | 2 | 32.4 | ||
| Low | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 8.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brevyn Spann-Ford should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brevyn Spann-Ford has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brevyn Spann-Ford's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brevyn Spann-Ford usually produces.
Projected is Brevyn Spann-Ford's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 3 | BAL | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 4 | HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | GB | 5 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 7 | PHI | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 8 | ARI | 5 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 7.1 |
| Spann-Ford avg | 2.6 | 1.9 | 15.7 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
| Commanders TE1 avg | 6.7 | 5.3 | 63.7 | 1.0 | 17.7 | |
| Difference | +4.1 | +3.4 | +48.0 | +1.0 | +14.2 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 20.4 | 0.0 | 4.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Spann-Ford averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Brevyn Spann-FordGood confidence · 4.8 proj pts1/10 start
- Brevyn Spann-Ford averages 3.4 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 4.1) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Commanders have allowed 17.7 points to TE1s over 7 games (+68% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.4) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 4.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrevyn Spann-Ford vs the Commanders
Prediction for Brevyn Spann-Ford
Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 4.8 points for Brevyn Spann-Ford if playing as a TE1. Brevyn Spann-Ford has averaged 3.4 over 7 games, and the Commanders have given up 17.7 to TE1s (+68% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brevyn Spann-Ford scored: Wk 1 3.4, Wk 3 2.9, Wk 4 0.0, Wk 5 0.0, Wk 6 7.5, Wk 7 3.1, Wk 8 7.1. Average 3.4; weighted toward recent games it is 3.7.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Commanders allowed 17.7 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +68%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 3.7 x 1.30 = 4.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brevyn Spann-Ford is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.0 points, leaning on Brevyn Spann-Ford's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 5.3 receptions, 63.7 receiving yards and 1.0 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 7 games.
- The Commanders allow 17.7 PPR points to TE1s, +68% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Isaiah Likely (32.4 pts, 11 rec, 94 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.7 vs 15.2; rec 5.3 vs 4.3; yds 63.7 vs 58.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 7 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.3 to 32.4 (median 17.9).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 7 games (57%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.