Spencer Shrader
K
Indianapolis Colts
This is how Ks have played against the Chiefs in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Wil Lutz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 4.0 |
| Average | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Median | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | ||
| High | 1 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 4.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 4.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Spencer Shrader should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Spencer Shrader has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Spencer Shrader will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Spencer Shrader's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Spencer Shrader usually produces.
Projected is Spencer Shrader's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 2 | 7.0 |
| 2 | KC | 3 | 3 | 2 | 49 | 3 | 14.0 |
| 3 | HOU | 4 | 4 | 2 | 58 | 1 | 17.0 |
| 4 | WAS | 3 | 3 | 3 | 52 | 3 | 16.0 |
| 5 | PIT | 5 | 5 | 3 | 57 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 6 | TEN | 2 | 2 | 1 | 47 | 2 | 9.0 |
| 7 | MIN | 1 | 3 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 5.0 |
| 8 | JAX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Shrader avg | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 45.5 | 1.8 | 11.3 | |
| Chiefs K1 avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | |
| Difference | -1.4 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -14.5 | -0.8 | -7.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Shrader averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreSpencer Shrader vs the Chiefs
Prediction for Spencer Shrader
Nobody knows which slot Spencer Shrader will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 8.6 points for Spencer Shrader if playing as a K1. Spencer Shrader has averaged 7.0 over 1 game, and the Chiefs have given up 4.0 to K1s (-53% vs the league average of 8.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Spencer Shrader scored: Wk 1 7.0. Average 7.0; weighted toward recent games it is 9.9.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Chiefs allowed 4.0 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.5, so that is -53%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -13% adjustment (x0.87).
4. Result. 9.9 x 0.87 = 8.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Spencer Shrader is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.2 points, leaning on Spencer Shrader's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 1.0 field goals made, 1.0 field goal attempts and 1.0 extra points against the Chiefs across 1 game.
- The Chiefs allow 4.0 PPR points to K1s, -53% versus the league average of 8.5 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.