AJ Barner
TE
Seattle Seahawks
- Quarterback Sam Darnold is out, so a backup is throwing. Barner's numbers may take a hit.
- Teammate Rashid Shaheed (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Dallas Goedert | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 |
| 2 |  DAL | Jake Ferguson | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 20.3 |
| Average | 4.5 | 4.0 | 60.0 | 2.0 | 22.0 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 4.0 | 60.0 | 2.0 | 22.0 | ||
| High | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 | ||
| Low | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 20.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How AJ Barner should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game AJ Barner has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot AJ Barner will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus AJ Barner's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than AJ Barner usually produces.
Projected is AJ Barner's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 2 | ARI | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 3 | WAS | 9 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 11.9 |
| 4 | LAC | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2.2 |
| 5 | SF | 5 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 6 | DEN | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 4.6 |
| 7 | KC | 5 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 8.6 |
| 8 | CHI | 5 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 4.3 |
| Barner avg | 4.3 | 2.6 | 25.4 | 0.0 | 6.0 | |
| Commanders TE1 avg | 4.5 | 4.0 | 60.0 | 2.0 | 22.0 | |
| Difference | +0.3 | +1.4 | +34.6 | +2.0 | +16.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Barner averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAJ Barner vs the Commanders
Prediction for AJ Barner
Nobody knows which slot AJ Barner will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 9.8 points for AJ Barner if playing as a TE1. AJ Barner has averaged 5.6 over 2 games, and the Commanders have given up 22.0 to TE1s (+112% vs the league average of 10.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. AJ Barner scored: Wk 1 3.3, Wk 2 7.9. Average 5.6; weighted toward recent games it is 7.5.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Commanders allowed 22.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.4, so that is +112%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 7.5 x 1.30 = 9.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely AJ Barner is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.9 points, leaning on AJ Barner's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.0 receptions, 60.0 receiving yards and 2.0 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 2 games.
- The Commanders allow 22.0 PPR points to TE1s, +112% versus the league average of 10.4 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 20.3 to 23.7 (median 22.0).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.