Braelon Allen
RB
New York Jets▲ Hot
- Teammate Garrett Wilson (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Chiefs in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Chiefs in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | RJ Harvey | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 8.1 |
| 2 |  IND | Jonathan Taylor | 24 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 29.2 |
| 3 |  MIA | Ollie Gordon II | 17 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 4 |  LV | Ashton Jeanty | 15 | 58 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 68 | 0 | 18.6 |
| 6 |  LAC | Omarion Hampton | 7 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 7 |  SEA | Emanuel Wilson | 24 | 100 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 18.5 |
| 8 | DEN | Jonah Coleman | 11 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 20.4 |
| Average | 14.4 | 52.6 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 34.9 | 0.0 | 16.7 | ||
| Median | 15.0 | 41.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 18.5 | ||
| High | 24 | 100 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 68 | 0 | 29.2 | ||
| Low | 3 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 7.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Braelon Allen should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Braelon Allen has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Braelon Allen will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Braelon Allen's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Braelon Allen usually produces.
Projected is Braelon Allen's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 10 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 2 | GB | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 3 | DET | 4 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 4 | CHI | 14 | 59 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8.7 |
| 5 | CLE | 24 | 116 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.6 |
| 6 | NE | 17 | 78 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 12.4 |
| 7 | MIA | 17 | 104 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 19.4 |
| 8 | LV | 21 | 147 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 23.3 |
| Allen avg | 14.0 | 70.6 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 12.4 | |
| Chiefs RB1 avg | 14.4 | 52.6 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 34.9 | 0.0 | 16.7 | |
| Difference | +0.4 | -18.1 | +0.3 | +1.4 | +1.6 | +24.7 | +0.0 | +4.3 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 14.4 | 72.6 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 13.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Allen averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Braelon AllenGood confidence · 12.8 proj pts5/10 start
- Braelon Allen averages 12.4 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 15.5) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Chiefs have allowed 16.7 points to RB1s over 7 games (+4% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +3% adjustment.
- Last season's average (3.8) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -8%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 18.8 points for NYJ (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 10: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (65F, 9 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Mansoor Delane (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter L'Jarius Sneed (CB) is on IR, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+0%): Teammate Garrett Wilson (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Allen.
- Projection: 12.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBraelon Allen vs the Chiefs
Prediction for Braelon Allen
Nobody knows which slot Braelon Allen will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 13.5 points for Braelon Allen if playing as a RB1. Braelon Allen has averaged 12.4 over 8 games, and the Chiefs have given up 16.7 to RB1s (+4% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Braelon Allen scored: Wk 1 4.0, Wk 2 8.5, Wk 3 4.7, Wk 4 8.7, Wk 5 18.6, Wk 6 12.4, Wk 7 19.4, Wk 8 23.3. Average 12.4; weighted toward recent games it is 13.2.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Chiefs allowed 16.7 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 13.2 x 1.03 = 13.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Braelon Allen is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.2 points, leaning on Braelon Allen's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 14.4 carries, 52.6 rushing yards and 3.7 receptions against the Chiefs across 7 games.
- The Chiefs allow 16.7 PPR points to RB1s, +4% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Jonathan Taylor (29.2 pts, 24 car, 92 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.7 vs 14.7; car 14.4 vs 12.8; rush yds 52.6 vs 46.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 7, Emanuel Wilson (24 car, 100 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 14.4 vs 12.8; rush yds 52.6 vs 44.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.9 to 29.2 (median 18.5).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 7 games (57%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.