Braelon Allen
RB
New York Jets▲ Hot
- Teammate Garrett Wilson (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Patriots in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Jadarian Price | 10 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 2 |  PIT | Jaylen Warren | 11 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 3 |  JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | 15 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 17.0 |
| 4 |  BUF | James Cook | 12 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 16.3 |
| 5 |  LV | Dylan Laube | 4 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.5 |
| Average | 10.4 | 50.4 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 16.2 | 0.0 | 12.5 | ||
| Median | 11.0 | 52.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 11.5 | ||
| High | 15 | 75 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 17.0 | ||
| Low | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Braelon Allen should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Braelon Allen has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Braelon Allen will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Braelon Allen's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Braelon Allen usually produces.
Projected is Braelon Allen's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 10 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 2 | GB | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 3 | DET | 4 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 4 | CHI | 14 | 59 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8.7 |
| 5 | CLE | 24 | 116 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.6 |
| 6 | NE | 17 | 78 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 12.4 |
| 7 | MIA | 17 | 104 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 19.4 |
| 8 | LV | 21 | 147 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 23.3 |
| Allen avg | 14.0 | 70.6 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 12.4 | |
| Patriots RB1 avg | 10.4 | 50.4 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 16.2 | 0.0 | 12.5 | |
| Difference | -3.6 | -20.2 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +6.1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Allen averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBraelon Allen vs the Patriots
Prediction for Braelon Allen
Nobody knows which slot Braelon Allen will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 7.3 points for Braelon Allen if playing as a RB1. Braelon Allen has averaged 8.9 over 5 games, and the Patriots have given up 12.5 to RB1s (-22% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Braelon Allen scored: Wk 1 4.0, Wk 2 8.5, Wk 3 4.7, Wk 4 8.7, Wk 5 18.6. Average 8.9; weighted toward recent games it is 8.4.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Patriots allowed 12.5 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 8.4 x 0.86 = 7.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Braelon Allen is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.6 points, leaning on Braelon Allen's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 10.4 carries, 50.4 rushing yards and 2.2 receptions against the Patriots across 5 games.
- The Patriots allow 12.5 PPR points to RB1s, -22% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Dylan Laube (4 car, 9 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 10.4 vs 12.0; rush yds 50.4 vs 60.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.8 to 17.0 (median 11.5).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 5 games (60%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.