Brian Thomas Jr.
WR
Jacksonville Jaguars
This is how WRs have played against the Eagles in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Eagles in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  WAS | Terry McLaurin | 4 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 2 |  TEN | Calvin Ridley | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 3 |  CHI | Rome Odunze | 6 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 7.4 |
| 4 |  LA | Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| Average | 3.3 | 2.0 | 25.3 | 0.0 | 4.5 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.0 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 4.5 | ||
| High | 6 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 7.4 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brian Thomas Jr. should do vs the EaglesSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Eagles, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brian Thomas Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Eagles opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brian Thomas Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Eagles avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brian Thomas Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brian Thomas Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Brian Thomas Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Eagles were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 2 | DEN | 8 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 3 | NE | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 4 | CIN | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 9.7 |
| 5 | PHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | HOU | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 8 | IND | 2 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 8.2 |
| Jr. avg | 3.0 | 1.4 | 16.7 | 0.3 | 4.8 | |
| Eagles WR3 avg | 3.3 | 2.0 | 25.3 | 0.0 | 4.5 | |
| Difference | +0.3 | +0.6 | +8.5 | -0.3 | -0.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrian Thomas Jr. vs the Eagles
Prediction for Brian Thomas Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Brian Thomas Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Eagles.
I predict about 7.7 points for Brian Thomas Jr. if playing as a WR3. Brian Thomas Jr. has averaged 6.4 over 4 games, and the Eagles have given up 4.5 to WR3s (+2% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brian Thomas Jr. scored: Wk 1 7.0, Wk 2 7.0, Wk 3 1.8, Wk 4 9.7. Average 6.4; weighted toward recent games it is 7.6.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Eagles allowed 4.5 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is +2%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +1% adjustment (x1.01).
4. Result. 7.6 x 1.01 = 7.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brian Thomas Jr. is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.8 points, leaning on Brian Thomas Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 2.0 receptions, 25.3 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Eagles across 4 games.
- The Eagles allow 4.5 PPR points to WR3s, +2% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 17 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 0 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.8 to 7.4 (median 4.5).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 4 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.