Caleb Williams
QB
Chicago Bears
This is how QBs have played against the Vikings in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GB | Jordan Love | 21 | 42 | 387 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19.5 |
| Average | 21.0 | 42.0 | 387.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.5 | ||
| Median | 21.0 | 42.0 | 387.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.5 | ||
| High | 21 | 42 | 387 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19.5 | ||
| Low | 21 | 42 | 387 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Caleb Williams should do vs the VikingsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Vikings, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Caleb Williams has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Vikings opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Caleb Williams will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Vikings avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Caleb Williams's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Caleb Williams usually produces.
Projected is Caleb Williams's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Vikings were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 21 | 29 | 269 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 65 | 2 | 37.3 |
| 2 | MIN | 15 | 26 | 138 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 6 | ATL | 30 | 36 | 305 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 7 | NE | 22 | 33 | 308 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 22.1 |
| 8 | SEA | 24 | 34 | 247 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14.0 |
| Williams avg | 22.4 | 31.6 | 253.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 25.8 | 0.4 | 19.5 | |
| Vikings QB1 avg | 21.0 | 42.0 | 387.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.5 | |
| Difference | -1.4 | +10.4 | +133.6 | +0.8 | +0.8 | -4.2 | -25.8 | -0.4 | -0.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Williams averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreCaleb Williams vs the Vikings
Prediction for Caleb Williams
Nobody knows which slot Caleb Williams will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Vikings.
I predict about 25.7 points for Caleb Williams if playing as a QB1. Caleb Williams has averaged 37.3 over 1 game, and the Vikings have given up 19.5 to QB1s (+12% vs the league average of 17.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Caleb Williams scored: Wk 1 37.3. Average 37.3; weighted toward recent games it is 24.9.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Vikings allowed 19.5 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.4, so that is +12%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 24.9 x 1.03 = 25.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Caleb Williams is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (25.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 15.4 points, leaning on Caleb Williams's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 26.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 387.0 passing yards, 2.0 passing TDs and 0.0 rushing yards against the Vikings across 1 game.
- The Vikings allow 19.5 PPR points to QB1s, +12% versus the league average of 17.4 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.