Ashton Jeanty
RB
Las Vegas Raiders▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | David Montgomery | 20 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 28.9 |
| 2 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 16 | 52 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 23.3 |
| 3 |  LAC | Keaton Mitchell | 8 | 52 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 1 | 13.7 |
| 4 |  NE | Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 18.4 |
| 5 |  LA | Kyren Williams | 16 | 49 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 19.6 |
| Average | 14.6 | 52.0 | 0.8 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 25.8 | 0.6 | 20.8 | ||
| Median | 16.0 | 52.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 27.0 | 1.0 | 19.6 | ||
| High | 20 | 60 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 28.9 | ||
| Low | 8 | 47 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 13.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ashton Jeanty should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ashton Jeanty has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ashton Jeanty will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ashton Jeanty's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ashton Jeanty usually produces.
Projected is Ashton Jeanty's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 23 | 102 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 2 | 32.7 |
| 2 | LAC | 21 | 48 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 10.3 |
| 3 | NO | 19 | 56 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 4 | KC | 15 | 58 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 68 | 0 | 18.6 |
| 5 | NE | 10 | 27 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 10.7 |
| 6 | BUF | 10 | 22 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 7 | LA | 8 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 61 | 1 | 21.6 |
| 8 | NYJ | 2 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 64 | 0 | 10.3 |
| Jeanty avg | 13.5 | 42.1 | 0.1 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 47.0 | 0.4 | 16.5 | |
| Bills RB1 avg | 14.6 | 52.0 | 0.8 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 25.8 | 0.6 | 20.8 | |
| Difference | +1.1 | +9.9 | +0.7 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -21.2 | +0.2 | +4.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jeanty averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAshton Jeanty vs the Bills
Prediction for Ashton Jeanty
Nobody knows which slot Ashton Jeanty will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 18.0 points for Ashton Jeanty if playing as a RB1. Ashton Jeanty has averaged 16.9 over 5 games, and the Bills have given up 20.8 to RB1s (+29% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ashton Jeanty scored: Wk 1 32.7, Wk 2 10.3, Wk 3 12.3, Wk 4 18.6, Wk 5 10.7. Average 16.9; weighted toward recent games it is 15.2.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Bills allowed 20.8 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +29%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +18% adjustment (x1.18).
4. Result. 15.2 x 1.18 = 18.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ashton Jeanty is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.7 points, leaning on Ashton Jeanty's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 14.6 carries, 52.0 rushing yards and 4.2 receptions against the Bills across 5 games.
- The Bills allow 20.8 PPR points to RB1s, +29% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 5 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 13.7 to 28.9 (median 19.6).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 40 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 5 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.