Tetairoa McMillan
WR
Carolina Panthers
This is how WRs have played against the Buccaneers in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Buccaneers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Dohnte Meyers | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 2 |  CLE | KC Concepcion | 6 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 8.2 |
| 3 |  MIN | Justin Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 4 |  GB | Christian Watson | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 5 |  DAL | Ryan Flournoy | 4 | 3 | 90 | 0 | 12.0 |
| 6 |  PIT | DK Metcalf | 15 | 11 | 93 | 0 | 20.3 |
| Average | 5.2 | 4.3 | 51.3 | 0.0 | 9.5 | ||
| Median | 3.5 | 3.0 | 39.5 | 0.0 | 7.9 | ||
| High | 15 | 11 | 93 | 0 | 20.3 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Tetairoa McMillan should do vs the BuccaneersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tetairoa McMillan has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tetairoa McMillan will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tetairoa McMillan's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tetairoa McMillan usually produces.
Projected is Tetairoa McMillan's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 8 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 2 | ATL | 10 | 5 | 101 | 0 | 15.1 |
| 3 | CLE | 5 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 4 | DET | 16 | 14 | 192 | 2 | 45.2 |
| 6 | PHI | 9 | 6 | 86 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 7 | TB | 6 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 8 | GB | 11 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 11.8 |
| McMillan avg | 9.3 | 6.0 | 81.3 | 0.3 | 15.6 | |
| Buccaneers WR2 avg | 5.2 | 4.3 | 51.3 | 0.0 | 9.5 | |
| Difference | -4.1 | -1.7 | -30.0 | -0.3 | -6.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McMillan averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreTetairoa McMillan vs the Buccaneers
Prediction for Tetairoa McMillan
Nobody knows which slot Tetairoa McMillan will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 18.3 points for Tetairoa McMillan if playing as a WR2. Tetairoa McMillan has averaged 17.8 over 5 games, and the Buccaneers have given up 9.5 to WR2s (+8% vs the league average of 8.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tetairoa McMillan scored: Wk 1 10.5, Wk 2 15.1, Wk 3 3.7, Wk 4 45.2, Wk 6 14.6. Average 17.8; weighted toward recent games it is 17.4.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Buccaneers allowed 9.5 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.9, so that is +8%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).
4. Result. 17.4 x 1.05 = 18.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tetairoa McMillan is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 15.1 points, leaning on Tetairoa McMillan's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 4.3 receptions, 51.3 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Buccaneers across 6 games.
- The Buccaneers allow 9.5 PPR points to WR2s, +8% versus the league average of 8.9 (ranked 13 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 6, DK Metcalf (20.3 pts, 11 rec, 93 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.5 vs 7.4; rec 4.3 vs 3.0; yds 51.3 vs 43.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Dohnte Meyers (3.8 pts, 1 rec, 18 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.5 vs 10.7; rec 4.3 vs 5.0; yds 51.3 vs 58.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.8 to 20.3 (median 7.9).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 6 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.