Tyler Warren
TE
Indianapolis Colts▲ Hot
This is how TEs have played against the Chiefs in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Chiefs in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Evan Engram | 5 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 14.3 |
| Average | 5.0 | 4.0 | 43.0 | 1.0 | 14.3 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 4.0 | 43.0 | 1.0 | 14.3 | ||
| High | 5 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 14.3 | ||
| Low | 5 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 14.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Tyler Warren should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tyler Warren has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tyler Warren will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tyler Warren's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tyler Warren usually produces.
Projected is Tyler Warren's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 5 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 10.3 |
| 2 | KC | 7 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 14.4 |
| 3 | HOU | 10 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 14.7 |
| 4 | WAS | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 5 | PIT | 9 | 7 | 83 | 0 | 21.4 |
| 8 | JAX | 10 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 5.8 |
| Warren avg | 7.7 | 5.7 | 38.5 | 0.3 | 12.6 | |
| Chiefs TE1 avg | 5.0 | 4.0 | 43.0 | 1.0 | 14.3 | |
| Difference | -2.7 | -1.7 | +4.5 | +0.7 | +1.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Warren averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreTyler Warren vs the Chiefs
Prediction for Tyler Warren
Nobody knows which slot Tyler Warren will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 11.9 points for Tyler Warren if playing as a TE1. Tyler Warren has averaged 10.3 over 1 game, and the Chiefs have given up 14.3 to TE1s (+39% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tyler Warren scored: Wk 1 10.3. Average 10.3; weighted toward recent games it is 10.8.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Chiefs allowed 14.3 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +39%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +10% adjustment (x1.10).
4. Result. 10.8 x 1.10 = 11.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tyler Warren is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.1 points, leaning on Tyler Warren's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.0 receptions, 43.0 receiving yards and 1.0 receiving TDs against the Chiefs across 1 game.
- The Chiefs allow 14.3 PPR points to TE1s, +39% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.