Mitchell Evans
TE
Carolina Panthers
This is how TEs have played against the Packers in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Packers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 13.6 |
| 2 |  NYJ | Kenyon Sadiq | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 3 |  ATL | Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 9.1 |
| 4 |  TB | Cade Otton | 6 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 5 |  CHI | Colston Loveland | 5 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 6 |  DAL | Brevyn Spann-Ford | 5 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 7 |  DET | Sam LaPorta | 2 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2.8 |
| Average | 4.0 | 2.7 | 24.7 | 0.3 | 6.9 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | ||
| High | 6 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 13.6 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mitchell Evans should do vs the PackersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Packers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mitchell Evans has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Packers opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mitchell Evans will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Packers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mitchell Evans's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mitchell Evans usually produces.
Projected is Mitchell Evans's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Packers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 2 | ATL | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 3 | CLE | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 6.6 |
| 4 | DET | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 6 | PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| 7 | TB | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 8 | GB | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 |
| Evans avg | 1.7 | 1.4 | 18.1 | 0.0 | 3.3 | |
| Packers TE1 avg | 4.0 | 2.7 | 24.7 | 0.3 | 6.9 | |
| Difference | +2.3 | +1.3 | +6.6 | +0.3 | +3.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Evans averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMitchell Evans vs the Packers
Prediction for Mitchell Evans
Nobody knows which slot Mitchell Evans will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Packers.
I predict about 2.6 points for Mitchell Evans if playing as a TE1. Mitchell Evans has averaged 3.1 over 6 games, and the Packers have given up 6.9 to TE1s (-34% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mitchell Evans scored: Wk 1 1.9, Wk 2 2.3, Wk 3 6.6, Wk 4 1.8, Wk 6 0.1, Wk 7 5.9. Average 3.1; weighted toward recent games it is 3.4.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Packers allowed 6.9 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is -34%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -24% adjustment (x0.76).
4. Result. 3.4 x 0.76 = 2.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mitchell Evans is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.6 points, leaning on Mitchell Evans's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 2.7 receptions, 24.7 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Packers across 7 games.
- The Packers allow 6.9 PPR points to TE1s, -34% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 31 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, T.J. Hockenson (13.6 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 6.9 vs 5.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.8 to 13.6 (median 7.5).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 7 games (29%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.