Tez Johnson
WR
Tampa Bay Buccaneers▲ Hot
- Teammate Emeka Egbuka (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Ravens in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Ravens in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  IND | Josh Downs | 4 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 2 |  NO | Bryce Lance | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 3 |  DAL | KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 4 |  TEN | Elic Ayomanor | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3.2 |
| 5 |  ATL | Zachariah Branch | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 6 |  CLE | Denzel Boston | 5 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 7 |  CIN | Mitchell Tinsley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 8 |  BUF | Keon Coleman | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Average | 2.4 | 1.3 | 14.6 | 0.0 | 3.6 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | ||
| High | 5 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 8.8 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Tez Johnson should do vs the RavensSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Ravens, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tez Johnson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Ravens opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tez Johnson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Ravens avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tez Johnson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tez Johnson usually produces.
Projected is Tez Johnson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Ravens were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| 2 | CLE | 4 | 1 | 49 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 3 | MIN | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 4 | GB | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 5 | DAL | 1 | 1 | 64 | 0 | 7.4 |
| 6 | PIT | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 7 | CAR | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 12.7 |
| Johnson avg | 2.1 | 1.3 | 25.4 | 0.1 | 5.0 | |
| Ravens WR3 avg | 2.4 | 1.3 | 14.6 | 0.0 | 3.6 | |
| Difference | +0.2 | -0.0 | -10.8 | -0.1 | -1.4 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 22.1 | 0.1 | 5.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Johnson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Tez JohnsonGood confidence · 5.4 proj pts1/10 start
- Tez Johnson averages 5.0 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 6.2) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Ravens have allowed 3.6 points to WR3s over 8 games (-18% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (6.2) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 5.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreTez Johnson vs the Ravens
Prediction for Tez Johnson
Nobody knows which slot Tez Johnson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Ravens.
I predict about 5.4 points for Tez Johnson if playing as a WR3. Tez Johnson has averaged 5.0 over 7 games, and the Ravens have given up 3.6 to WR3s (-18% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tez Johnson scored: Wk 1 -0.4, Wk 2 5.9, Wk 3 1.8, Wk 4 4.7, Wk 5 7.4, Wk 6 2.7, Wk 7 12.7. Average 5.0; weighted toward recent games it is 6.2.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Ravens allowed 3.6 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is -18%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -13% adjustment (x0.87).
4. Result. 6.2 x 0.87 = 5.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tez Johnson is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.3 points, leaning on Tez Johnson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 1.3 receptions, 14.6 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Ravens across 8 games.
- The Ravens allow 3.6 PPR points to WR3s, -18% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.4 to 8.8 (median 2.9).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 1 of 8 games (13%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.