Efton Chism III
WR
New England Patriots
- Teammate Hunter Henry (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Xavier Hutchinson | 6 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 2 |  DET | Isaac TeSlaa | 5 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 4.6 |
| 3 |  LAC | Quentin Johnston | 6 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| Average | 5.7 | 2.7 | 32.7 | 0.0 | 5.9 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 3.0 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 6.2 | ||
| High | 6 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 | ||
| Low | 5 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 4.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Efton Chism III should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Efton Chism III has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Efton Chism III will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Efton Chism III's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Efton Chism III usually produces.
Projected is Efton Chism III's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PIT | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | JAX | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 4 | BUF | 4 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 12.2 |
| 5 | LV | 6 | 5 | 57 | 0 | 10.9 |
| 6 | NYJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 7 | CHI | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 8 | MIA | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 6.7 |
| III avg | 2.9 | 2.1 | 21.6 | 0.1 | 5.0 | |
| Bills WR3 avg | 5.7 | 2.7 | 32.7 | 0.0 | 5.9 | |
| Difference | +2.8 | +0.5 | +11.1 | -0.1 | +0.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what III averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreEfton Chism III vs the Bills
Prediction for Efton Chism III
Nobody knows which slot Efton Chism III will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 1.5 points for Efton Chism III if playing as a WR3. Efton Chism III has averaged 1.3 over 2 games, and the Bills have given up 5.9 to WR3s (+30% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Efton Chism III scored: Wk 2 0.8, Wk 3 1.7. Average 1.3; weighted toward recent games it is 1.3.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Bills allowed 5.9 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +30%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +15% adjustment (x1.15).
4. Result. 1.3 x 1.15 = 1.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Efton Chism III is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 0.9 points, leaning on Efton Chism III's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 2.7 receptions, 32.7 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Bills across 3 games.
- The Bills allow 5.9 PPR points to WR3s, +30% versus the league average of 4.6 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 0 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.6 to 7.0 (median 6.2).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.