Woody Marks
RB
Houston Texans▲ Hot
- Backfield mate David Montgomery is out, so Marks could see more carries.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Chargers in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Chargers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 11 | 41 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 13.0 |
| 2 |  LV | Ashton Jeanty | 21 | 48 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 10.3 |
| 3 |  BUF | James Cook | 24 | 154 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19.4 |
| 4 |  SEA | Emanuel Wilson | 21 | 81 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 27.0 |
| 5 |  DEN | J.K. Dobbins | 18 | 68 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 15.4 |
| 6 |  KC | Kenneth Walker III | 19 | 128 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 27.9 |
| 8 |  LA | Blake Corum | 11 | 73 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.3 |
| Average | 17.9 | 84.7 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 11.4 | 0.1 | 18.0 | ||
| Median | 19.0 | 73.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 15.4 | ||
| High | 24 | 154 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 27.9 | ||
| Low | 11 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Woody Marks should do vs the ChargersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chargers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Woody Marks has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chargers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Woody Marks will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chargers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Woody Marks's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Woody Marks usually produces.
Projected is Woody Marks's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chargers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 9 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 2 | CIN | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 3 | IND | 5 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 4 | DAL | 6 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.2 |
| 5 | TEN | 15 | 62 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 6 | JAX | 15 | 56 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 10.1 |
| 7 | NYG | 19 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 9.1 |
| Marks avg | 11.0 | 38.7 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 8.9 | |
| Chargers RB1 avg | 17.9 | 84.7 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 11.4 | 0.1 | 18.0 | |
| Difference | +6.9 | +46.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | -0.1 | -2.0 | +0.1 | +9.1 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 11.9 | 42.0 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 14.6 | 0.0 | 10.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Marks averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Woody MarksGood confidence · 10.5 proj pts5/10 start
- Woody Marks averages 8.9 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 9.4) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Chargers have allowed 18.0 points to RB1s over 7 games (+12% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +8% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.1) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +4%: Vegas total 40.5, implied 23.3 points for HOU (league avg 22.6); Favored by 6: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Projection: 10.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreWoody Marks vs the Chargers
Prediction for Woody Marks
Nobody knows which slot Woody Marks will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chargers.
I predict about 10.1 points for Woody Marks if playing as a RB1. Woody Marks has averaged 8.9 over 7 games, and the Chargers have given up 18.0 to RB1s (+12% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Woody Marks scored: Wk 1 5.0, Wk 2 8.5, Wk 3 9.1, Wk 4 8.2, Wk 5 12.5, Wk 6 10.1, Wk 7 9.1. Average 8.9; weighted toward recent games it is 9.3.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Chargers allowed 18.0 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +12%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +8% adjustment (x1.08).
4. Result. 9.3 x 1.08 = 10.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Woody Marks is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.1 points, leaning on Woody Marks's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 17.9 carries, 84.7 rushing yards and 1.9 receptions against the Chargers across 7 games.
- The Chargers allow 18.0 PPR points to RB1s, +12% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 9 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 6, Kenneth Walker III (27.9 pts, 128 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.0 vs 16.4; rush yds 84.7 vs 77.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Emanuel Wilson (27.0 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.0 vs 16.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 10.3 to 27.9 (median 15.4).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 40 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 7 games (86%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.