Harold Fannin Jr.
TE
Cleveland BrownsQ
- Quarterback Deshaun Watson is questionable. Watch the status.
- Teammate Denzel Boston (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Saints in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Saints in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Sam LaPorta | 8 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 2 |  BAL | Mark Andrews | 7 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 10.9 |
| 3 |  LV | Brock Bowers | 13 | 10 | 116 | 1 | 27.6 |
| 4 |  ATL | Kyle Pitts | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 5 |  MIN | Gavin Bartholomew | 6 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 6 |  NYG | Isaiah Likely | 11 | 6 | 99 | 1 | 23.9 |
| 7 |  PIT | Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7.4 |
| Average | 7.0 | 5.1 | 56.6 | 0.4 | 13.7 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 5.0 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 9.8 | ||
| High | 13 | 10 | 116 | 1 | 27.6 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Harold Fannin Jr. should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Harold Fannin Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Harold Fannin Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Harold Fannin Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Harold Fannin Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Harold Fannin Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 2 | TB | 6 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 3 | CAR | 9 | 7 | 51 | 2 | 24.1 |
| 4 | PIT | 5 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 11.7 |
| 5 | NYJ | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| 6 | BAL | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 7 | TEN | 9 | 6 | 91 | 0 | 13.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 12 | 10 | 154 | 0 | 23.4 |
| Jr. avg | 6.4 | 4.4 | 51.4 | 0.4 | 11.3 | |
| Saints TE1 avg | 7.0 | 5.1 | 56.6 | 0.4 | 13.7 | |
| Difference | +0.6 | +0.8 | +5.2 | +0.1 | +2.4 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 62.0 | 0.5 | 14.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Harold Fannin Jr.Good confidence · 15.1 proj pts7/10 start
- Harold Fannin Jr. averages 11.3 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 12.5) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Saints have allowed 13.7 points to TE1s over 7 games (+30% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +21% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.7) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -2%: Vegas total 42.5, implied 19.8 points for CLE (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Martin Emerson Jr. (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+2%): Teammate Denzel Boston (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Fannin.
- Flag: Quarterback Deshaun Watson is questionable. Watch the status.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 15.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreHarold Fannin Jr. vs the Saints
Prediction for Harold Fannin Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Harold Fannin Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 14.9 points for Harold Fannin Jr. if playing as a TE1. Harold Fannin Jr. has averaged 11.3 over 8 games, and the Saints have given up 13.7 to TE1s (+30% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Harold Fannin Jr. scored: Wk 1 4.1, Wk 2 10.4, Wk 3 24.1, Wk 4 11.7, Wk 5 1.4, Wk 6 1.9, Wk 7 13.1, Wk 8 23.4. Average 11.3; weighted toward recent games it is 12.3.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Saints allowed 13.7 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +30%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +21% adjustment (x1.21).
4. Result. 12.3 x 1.21 = 14.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Harold Fannin Jr. is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.9 points, leaning on Harold Fannin Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 5.1 receptions, 56.6 receiving yards and 0.4 receiving TDs against the Saints across 7 games.
- The Saints allow 13.7 PPR points to TE1s, +30% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Brock Bowers (27.6 pts, 10 rec, 116 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.7 vs 11.3; rec 5.1 vs 4.3; yds 56.6 vs 46.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, Isaiah Likely (23.9 pts, 99 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.7 vs 12.0; yds 56.6 vs 49.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 7 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.4 to 27.6 (median 9.8).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 7 games (43%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.