RJ Harvey
RB
Denver BroncosIR
This is how RBs have played against the Chiefs in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Chiefs in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | RJ Harvey | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 8.1 |
| 2 |  IND | Jonathan Taylor | 24 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 29.2 |
| 3 |  MIA | Ollie Gordon II | 17 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 4 |  LV | Ashton Jeanty | 15 | 58 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 68 | 0 | 18.6 |
| 6 |  LAC | Omarion Hampton | 7 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 7 |  SEA | Emanuel Wilson | 24 | 100 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 18.5 |
| Average | 15.0 | 54.5 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 30.2 | 0.0 | 16.1 | ||
| Median | 16.0 | 49.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 16.5 | ||
| High | 24 | 100 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 68 | 0 | 29.2 | ||
| Low | 3 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 7.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How RJ Harvey should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game RJ Harvey has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot RJ Harvey will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus RJ Harvey's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than RJ Harvey usually produces.
Projected is RJ Harvey's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 8.1 |
| 3 | LA | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 10.7 |
| 4 | SF | 7 | 25 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 68 | 0 | 19.3 |
| 5 | LAC | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 |
| 6 | SEA | 6 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 7 | ARI | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 54 | 1 | 14.0 |
| Harvey avg | 4.0 | 14.5 | 0.2 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 36.2 | 0.2 | 11.2 | |
| Chiefs RB1 avg | 15.0 | 54.5 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 30.2 | 0.0 | 16.1 | |
| Difference | +11.0 | +40.0 | +0.5 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -6.0 | -0.2 | +4.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Harvey averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreRJ Harvey vs the Chiefs
Prediction for RJ Harvey
Nobody knows which slot RJ Harvey will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 11.9 points for RJ Harvey if playing as a RB1. RJ Harvey has averaged 11.2 over 6 games, and the Chiefs have given up 16.1 to RB1s (+1% vs the league average of 16.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. RJ Harvey scored: Wk 1 8.1, Wk 3 10.7, Wk 4 19.3, Wk 5 0.7, Wk 6 14.6, Wk 7 14.0. Average 11.2; weighted toward recent games it is 11.8.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Chiefs allowed 16.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.0, so that is +1%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +1% adjustment (x1.01).
4. Result. 11.8 x 1.01 = 11.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely RJ Harvey is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.4 points, leaning on RJ Harvey's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 15.0 carries, 54.5 rushing yards and 3.7 receptions against the Chiefs across 6 games.
- The Chiefs allow 16.1 PPR points to RB1s, +1% versus the league average of 16.0 (ranked 18 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Jonathan Taylor (29.2 pts, 24 car, 92 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.1 vs 13.5; car 15.0 vs 13.2; rush yds 54.5 vs 47.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 7, Emanuel Wilson (24 car, 100 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 15.0 vs 13.2; rush yds 54.5 vs 45.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.9 to 29.2 (median 16.5).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 6 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.