Antonio Williams
WR
Washington Commanders
- Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, so Williams may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Falcons in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Roman Wilson | 6 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 |
| 2 |  CAR | Xavier Legette | 4 | 2 | 64 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 3 |  GB | Skyy Moore | 7 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.1 |
| 4 |  NO | Bryce Lance | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 5 |  BAL | Devontez Walker | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 8.9 |
| 6 |  CHI | Zavion Thomas | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 7 |  SF | Brandin Cooks | 3 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Average | 4.3 | 2.1 | 25.0 | 0.1 | 5.5 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | ||
| High | 7 | 3 | 64 | 1 | 8.9 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Antonio Williams should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Antonio Williams has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Antonio Williams will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Antonio Williams's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Antonio Williams usually produces.
Projected is Antonio Williams's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 | 16.4 |
| 2 | DAL | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 3 | SEA | 4 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 4 | IND | 8 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 5.1 |
| 5 | NYG | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.1 |
| 6 | SF | 4 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 8 | PHI | 7 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 10.4 |
| Williams avg | 4.7 | 3.3 | 37.0 | 0.1 | 7.8 | |
| Falcons WR3 avg | 4.3 | 2.1 | 25.0 | 0.1 | 5.5 | |
| Difference | -0.4 | -1.1 | -12.0 | +0.0 | -2.3 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 43.7 | 0.2 | 9.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Williams averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Antonio WilliamsGood confidence · 9.2 proj pts1/10 start
- Antonio Williams averages 7.8 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 7.8) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Falcons have allowed 5.5 points to WR3s over 7 games (+26% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +18% adjustment.
- Projection: 9.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAntonio Williams vs the Falcons
Prediction for Antonio Williams
Nobody knows which slot Antonio Williams will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 9.2 points for Antonio Williams if playing as a WR3. Antonio Williams has averaged 7.8 over 7 games, and the Falcons have given up 5.5 to WR3s (+26% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Antonio Williams scored: Wk 1 16.4, Wk 2 5.4, Wk 3 3.5, Wk 4 5.1, Wk 5 6.1, Wk 6 8.0, Wk 8 10.4. Average 7.8; weighted toward recent games it is 7.8.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Falcons allowed 5.5 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is +26%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +18% adjustment (x1.18).
4. Result. 7.8 x 1.18 = 9.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Antonio Williams is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.4 points, leaning on Antonio Williams's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 2.1 receptions, 25.0 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Falcons across 8 games.
- The Falcons allow 5.5 PPR points to WR3s, +26% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Xavier Legette (64 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 25.0 vs 18.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.7 to 8.9 (median 5.6).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 1 of 7 games (14%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.