Kaelon Black
RB
San Francisco 49ers▲ Hot
- Teammate Christian McCaffrey (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Mike Evans (a top target) is questionable.
- Backfield mate Christian McCaffrey is questionable, so Black could see more carries.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Broncos in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Emmett Johnson | 8 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 2 |  JAX | Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 3 |  LA | Blake Corum | 6 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 |
| Average | 5.7 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 15.3 | 0.0 | 4.9 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | ||
| High | 8 | 24 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 8.8 | ||
| Low | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Kaelon Black should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Kaelon Black has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Kaelon Black will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Kaelon Black's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Kaelon Black usually produces.
Projected is Kaelon Black's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 14 | 65 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 2 | MIA | 7 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 3 | ARI | 4 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 4 | DEN | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 5 | SEA | 6 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 6 | WAS | 8 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 7 | ATL | 12 | 63 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 10.9 |
| Black avg | 8.1 | 33.3 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 4.4 | |
| Broncos RB2 avg | 5.7 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 15.3 | 0.0 | 4.9 | |
| Difference | -2.5 | -16.6 | -0.1 | +1.5 | +1.2 | +14.8 | +0.0 | +0.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Black averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreKaelon Black vs the Broncos
Prediction for Kaelon Black
Nobody knows which slot Kaelon Black will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 3.7 points for Kaelon Black if playing as a RB2. Kaelon Black has averaged 4.1 over 3 games, and the Broncos have given up 4.9 to RB2s (+5% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Kaelon Black scored: Wk 1 8.0, Wk 2 2.5, Wk 3 1.7. Average 4.1; weighted toward recent games it is 3.6.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Broncos allowed 4.9 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 3.6 x 1.03 = 3.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Kaelon Black is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.8 points, leaning on Kaelon Black's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 5.7 carries, 16.7 rushing yards and 1.7 receptions against the Broncos across 3 games.
- The Broncos allow 4.9 PPR points to RB2s, +5% versus the league average of 4.6 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 0 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.3 to 8.8 (median 3.5).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.