Bryce Lance
WR
New Orleans Saints
This is how WRs have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Falcons in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Roman Wilson | 6 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 |
| 2 |  CAR | Xavier Legette | 4 | 2 | 64 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 3 |  GB | Skyy Moore | 7 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.1 |
| Average | 5.7 | 2.7 | 40.3 | 0.0 | 6.7 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 3.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | ||
| High | 7 | 3 | 64 | 0 | 8.4 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Bryce Lance should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bryce Lance has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bryce Lance will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bryce Lance's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bryce Lance usually produces.
Projected is Bryce Lance's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 4 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 7.2 |
| 2 | BAL | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 3 | LV | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | ATL | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 5 | MIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | NYG | 4 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 8.9 |
| 7 | PIT | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3.2 |
| Lance avg | 3.1 | 1.3 | 11.1 | 0.1 | 3.3 | |
| Falcons WR3 avg | 5.7 | 2.7 | 40.3 | 0.0 | 6.7 | |
| Difference | +2.5 | +1.4 | +29.2 | -0.1 | +3.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lance averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBryce Lance vs the Falcons
Prediction for Bryce Lance
Nobody knows which slot Bryce Lance will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 3.1 points for Bryce Lance if playing as a WR3. Bryce Lance has averaged 3.0 over 3 games, and the Falcons have given up 6.7 to WR3s (+46% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bryce Lance scored: Wk 1 7.2, Wk 2 1.8, Wk 3 0.0. Average 3.0; weighted toward recent games it is 2.5.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Falcons allowed 6.7 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +46%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +23% adjustment (x1.23).
4. Result. 2.5 x 1.23 = 3.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bryce Lance is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.8 points, leaning on Bryce Lance's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 2.7 receptions, 40.3 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Falcons across 3 games.
- The Falcons allow 6.7 PPR points to WR3s, +46% versus the league average of 4.6 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Xavier Legette (64 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 40.3 vs 28.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.6 to 8.4 (median 6.1).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.