Barion Brown
WR
New Orleans Saints
This is how WRs have played against the Steelers in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Steelers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ATL | Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 2 |  NE | Kyle Williams | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.0 |
| 3 |  CIN | Dohnte Meyers | 5 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 4 |  CLE | Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 6.6 |
| 5 |  IND | Laquon Treadwell | 8 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 6 |  TB | Ted Hurst III | 6 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| Average | 4.2 | 2.2 | 25.7 | 0.0 | 4.7 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.5 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 5.7 | ||
| High | 8 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Barion Brown should do vs the SteelersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Steelers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Barion Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Steelers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Barion Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Steelers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Barion Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Barion Brown usually produces.
Projected is Barion Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Steelers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | NYG | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 7 | PIT | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 8.7 |
| Brown avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 5.1 | |
| Steelers WR3 avg | 4.2 | 2.2 | 25.7 | 0.0 | 4.7 | |
| Difference | +2.2 | +0.2 | -5.3 | +0.0 | -0.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBarion Brown vs the Steelers
Prediction for Barion Brown
Nobody knows which slot Barion Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Steelers.
I predict about 1.6 points for Barion Brown if playing as a WR3. Barion Brown has averaged 1.5 over 1 game, and the Steelers have given up 4.7 to WR3s (+7% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Barion Brown scored: Wk 6 1.5. Average 1.5; weighted toward recent games it is 1.5.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Steelers allowed 4.7 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is +7%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +4% adjustment (x1.04).
4. Result. 1.5 x 1.04 = 1.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Barion Brown is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 0.9 points, leaning on Barion Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 2.2 receptions, 25.7 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Steelers across 6 games.
- The Steelers allow 4.7 PPR points to WR3s, +7% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 12 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 0 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.5 to 7.0 (median 5.7).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 6 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.