Seth McGowan
RB
Indianapolis Colts
This is how RBs have played against the Bengals in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Bengals in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TB | Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 2 |  HOU | David Montgomery | 6 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 4.4 |
| 3 |  PIT | Travis Homer | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 |  JAX | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 6 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 5 |  MIA | Jaylen Wright | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 |
| 7 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 17 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5.9 |
| Average | 6.8 | 19.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3.6 | ||
| High | 17 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 9.5 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Seth McGowan should do vs the BengalsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bengals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Seth McGowan has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bengals opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Seth McGowan will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bengals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Seth McGowan's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Seth McGowan usually produces.
Projected is Seth McGowan's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bengals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| 2 | KC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | HOU | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 |
| 4 | WAS | 6 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 5 | PIT | 5 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 6 | TEN | 4 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 7 | MIN | 11 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 8 | JAX | 5 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 |
| McGowan avg | 4.6 | 20.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.7 | |
| Bengals RB2 avg | 6.8 | 19.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |
| Difference | +2.2 | -1.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +2.0 | +0.0 | +1.3 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 3.9 | 17.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McGowan averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Seth McGowanGood confidence · 2.7 proj pts1/10 start
- Seth McGowan averages 2.7 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 3.2) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Bengals have allowed 4.0 points to RB2s over 6 games (-22% vs league). The model applies 67% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -15% adjustment.
- Projection: 2.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreSeth McGowan vs the Bengals
Prediction for Seth McGowan
Nobody knows which slot Seth McGowan will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bengals.
I predict about 2.7 points for Seth McGowan if playing as a RB2. Seth McGowan has averaged 2.7 over 8 games, and the Bengals have given up 4.0 to RB2s (-22% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Seth McGowan scored: Wk 1 1.0, Wk 2 0.0, Wk 3 1.4, Wk 4 4.8, Wk 5 2.9, Wk 6 2.7, Wk 7 5.8, Wk 8 2.9. Average 2.7; weighted toward recent games it is 3.2.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Bengals allowed 4.0 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is -22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -15% adjustment (x0.85).
4. Result. 3.2 x 0.85 = 2.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Seth McGowan is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.9 points, leaning on Seth McGowan's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 6.8 carries, 19.3 rushing yards and 0.7 receptions against the Bengals across 7 games.
- The Bengals allow 4.0 PPR points to RB2s, -22% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Chris Rodriguez Jr. (9.5 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 4.0 vs 2.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 7, Derrick Henry (17 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 6.8 vs 4.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 9.5 (median 3.6).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 games (17%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.