Drew Stevens
K
Washington Commanders
This is how Ks have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Tyler Loop | 2 | 2 | 2 | 57 | 5 | 14.0 |
| 2 |  KC | Harrison Butker | 4 | 5 | 2 | 46 | 3 | 17.0 |
| 3 |  HOU | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 5.0 |
| Average | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 42.3 | 3.3 | 12.0 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 46.0 | 3.0 | 14.0 | ||
| High | 4 | 5 | 2 | 57 | 5 | 17.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 5.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Drew Stevens should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Drew Stevens has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Drew Stevens will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Drew Stevens's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Drew Stevens usually produces.
Projected is Drew Stevens's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 1 | 2 | 1 | 55 | 1 | 6.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 2 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 2 | 9.0 |
| 3 | SEA | 2 | 2 | 1 | 57 | 3 | 11.0 |
| 4 | IND | 2 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.0 |
| 5 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 8.0 |
| 6 | SF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 51 | 2 | 7.0 |
| 8 | PHI | 4 | 5 | 2 | 56 | 1 | 16.0 |
| Stevens avg | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 48.1 | 1.6 | 9.1 | |
| Colts K1 avg | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 42.3 | 3.3 | 12.0 | |
| Difference | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.3 | -5.8 | +1.8 | +2.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Stevens averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDrew Stevens vs the Colts
Prediction for Drew Stevens
Nobody knows which slot Drew Stevens will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 10.9 points for Drew Stevens if playing as a K1. Drew Stevens has averaged 8.7 over 3 games, and the Colts have given up 12.0 to K1s (+41% vs the league average of 8.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Drew Stevens scored: Wk 1 6.0, Wk 2 9.0, Wk 3 11.0. Average 8.7; weighted toward recent games it is 9.0.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Colts allowed 12.0 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.5, so that is +41%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +20% adjustment (x1.20).
4. Result. 9.0 x 1.20 = 10.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Drew Stevens is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.5 points, leaning on Drew Stevens's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 2.3 field goals made, 2.7 field goal attempts and 3.3 extra points against the Colts across 3 games.
- The Colts allow 12.0 PPR points to K1s, +41% versus the league average of 8.5 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Harrison Butker (17.0 pts, 4 FG) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.0 vs 9.5; FG 2.3 vs 1.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Ka'imi Fairbairn (5.0 pts, 1 FG) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.0 vs 15.5; FG 2.3 vs 3.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 3 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.0 to 17.0 (median 14.0).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.