Germie Bernard
WR
Pittsburgh Steelers▲ Hot
This is how WRs have played against the Saints in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Saints in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jameson Williams | 9 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 2 |  BAL | Devontez Walker | 2 | 1 | 47 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 3 |  LV | Cody White | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7.4 |
| 4 |  ATL | Jahan Dotson | 3 | 2 | 54 | 1 | 13.4 |
| 5 |  MIN | Tai Felton | 3 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 6 |  NYG | Charlie Jones | 3 | 2 | 66 | 0 | 8.6 |
| Average | 3.8 | 2.0 | 40.5 | 0.3 | 8.1 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.0 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | ||
| High | 9 | 4 | 66 | 1 | 13.4 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Germie Bernard should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Germie Bernard has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Germie Bernard will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Germie Bernard's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Germie Bernard usually produces.
Projected is Germie Bernard's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NE | 8 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 3 | CIN | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 4 | CLE | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 5 | IND | 9 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 6 | TB | 12 | 11 | 87 | 1 | 25.7 |
| 7 | NO | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 8 | CLE | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 8.0 |
| Bernard avg | 6.0 | 4.6 | 40.6 | 0.1 | 9.5 | |
| Saints WR2 avg | 3.8 | 2.0 | 40.5 | 0.3 | 8.1 | |
| Difference | -2.2 | -2.6 | -0.1 | +0.2 | -1.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Bernard averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreGermie Bernard vs the Saints
Prediction for Germie Bernard
Nobody knows which slot Germie Bernard will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 12.1 points for Germie Bernard if playing as a WR2. Germie Bernard has averaged 10.6 over 5 games, and the Saints have given up 8.1 to WR2s (-9% vs the league average of 8.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Germie Bernard scored: Wk 2 7.5, Wk 3 2.4, Wk 4 3.1, Wk 5 14.4, Wk 6 25.7. Average 10.6; weighted toward recent games it is 12.9.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Saints allowed 8.1 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.9, so that is -9%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -6% adjustment (x0.94).
4. Result. 12.9 x 0.94 = 12.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Germie Bernard is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.3 points, leaning on Germie Bernard's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 2.0 receptions, 40.5 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Saints across 6 games.
- The Saints allow 8.1 PPR points to WR2s, -9% versus the league average of 8.9 (ranked 22 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Jahan Dotson (13.4 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.1 vs 7.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Cody White (4 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: yds 40.5 vs 47.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.7 to 13.4 (median 8.0).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 6 games (33%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.