Jonah Coleman
RB
Denver Broncos
- Teammate RJ Harvey (a top target) is on IR, so Coleman may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Rams in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Rams in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 2 |  NYG | Cam Skattebo | 12 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 9.5 |
| Average | 11.0 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 | 11.7 | ||
| Median | 11.0 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 | 11.7 | ||
| High | 12 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 | ||
| Low | 10 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 9.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jonah Coleman should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jonah Coleman has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jonah Coleman will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jonah Coleman's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jonah Coleman usually produces.
Projected is Jonah Coleman's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | JAX | 10 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 14.8 |
| 7 | ARI | 9 | 54 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 8 | KC | 11 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 20.4 |
| Coleman avg | 10.0 | 44.7 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 32.3 | 0.0 | 14.7 | |
| Rams RB1 avg | 11.0 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 | 11.7 | |
| Difference | +1.0 | +7.3 | -0.7 | +2.7 | +1.5 | -12.8 | +0.0 | -3.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Coleman averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJonah Coleman vs the Rams
Prediction for Jonah Coleman
Nobody knows which slot Jonah Coleman will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 13.3 points for Jonah Coleman if playing as a RB1. Jonah Coleman has averaged 14.8 over 1 game, and the Rams have given up 11.7 to RB1s (-25% vs the league average of 15.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jonah Coleman scored: Wk 2 14.8. Average 14.8; weighted toward recent games it is 14.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Rams allowed 11.7 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.6, so that is -25%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -10% adjustment (x0.90).
4. Result. 14.8 x 0.90 = 13.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jonah Coleman is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.0 points, leaning on Jonah Coleman's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 11.0 carries, 52.0 rushing yards and 4.5 receptions against the Rams across 2 games.
- The Rams allow 11.7 PPR points to RB1s, -25% versus the league average of 15.6 (ranked 21 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.5 to 13.8 (median 11.7).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 30 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.