Jonah Coleman
RB
Denver Broncos
- Teammate RJ Harvey (a top target) is on IR, so Coleman may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Chargers in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Chargers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 11 | 41 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 13.0 |
| 2 |  LV | Ashton Jeanty | 21 | 48 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 10.3 |
| 3 |  BUF | James Cook | 24 | 154 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19.4 |
| 4 |  SEA | Emanuel Wilson | 21 | 81 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 27.0 |
| Average | 19.3 | 81.0 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 15.8 | 0.3 | 17.4 | ||
| Median | 21.0 | 64.5 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 16.2 | ||
| High | 24 | 154 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 27.0 | ||
| Low | 11 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jonah Coleman should do vs the ChargersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chargers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jonah Coleman has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chargers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jonah Coleman will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chargers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jonah Coleman's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jonah Coleman usually produces.
Projected is Jonah Coleman's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chargers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | JAX | 10 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 14.8 |
| 7 | ARI | 9 | 54 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 8 | KC | 11 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 20.4 |
| Coleman avg | 10.0 | 44.7 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 32.3 | 0.0 | 14.7 | |
| Chargers RB1 avg | 19.3 | 81.0 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 15.8 | 0.3 | 17.4 | |
| Difference | +9.3 | +36.3 | +0.1 | +0.7 | -0.8 | -16.6 | +0.3 | +2.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Coleman averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJonah Coleman vs the Chargers
Prediction for Jonah Coleman
Nobody knows which slot Jonah Coleman will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chargers.
I predict about 15.5 points for Jonah Coleman if playing as a RB1. Jonah Coleman has averaged 14.8 over 1 game, and the Chargers have given up 17.4 to RB1s (+9% vs the league average of 16.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jonah Coleman scored: Wk 2 14.8. Average 14.8; weighted toward recent games it is 14.8.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Chargers allowed 17.4 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.0, so that is +9%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).
4. Result. 14.8 x 1.05 = 15.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jonah Coleman is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.3 points, leaning on Jonah Coleman's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 19.3 carries, 81.0 rushing yards and 2.3 receptions against the Chargers across 4 games.
- The Chargers allow 17.4 PPR points to RB1s, +9% versus the league average of 16.0 (ranked 12 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Emanuel Wilson (27.0 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.4 vs 14.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, James Cook (154 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rush yds 81.0 vs 56.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 10.3 to 27.0 (median 16.2).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 40 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 4 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.