Nate Boerkircher
TE
Jacksonville Jaguars▲ Hot
This is how TEs have played against the Bengals in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Bengals in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TB | Cade Otton | 5 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 |
| 2 |  HOU | Dalton Schultz | 14 | 12 | 140 | 0 | 26.0 |
| 3 |  PIT | Darnell Washington | 4 | 3 | 67 | 0 | 9.7 |
| Average | 7.7 | 6.0 | 77.7 | 0.0 | 13.8 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 3.0 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | ||
| High | 14 | 12 | 140 | 0 | 26.0 | ||
| Low | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Nate Boerkircher should do vs the BengalsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bengals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Nate Boerkircher has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bengals opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Nate Boerkircher will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bengals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Nate Boerkircher's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Nate Boerkircher usually produces.
Projected is Nate Boerkircher's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bengals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 3 | NE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | CIN | 2 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 5 | PHI | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 6 | HOU | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 8.8 |
| 8 | IND | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 10.1 |
| Boerkircher avg | 1.5 | 1.2 | 13.8 | 0.3 | 4.6 | |
| Bengals TE1 avg | 7.7 | 6.0 | 77.7 | 0.0 | 13.8 | |
| Difference | +6.2 | +4.8 | +63.8 | -0.3 | +9.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Boerkircher averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreNate Boerkircher vs the Bengals
Prediction for Nate Boerkircher
Nobody knows which slot Nate Boerkircher will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bengals.
I predict about 1.0 points for Nate Boerkircher if playing as a TE1. Nate Boerkircher has averaged 0.9 over 2 games, and the Bengals have given up 13.8 to TE1s (+31% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Nate Boerkircher scored: Wk 1 1.9, Wk 3 0.0. Average 0.9; weighted toward recent games it is 0.8.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Bengals allowed 13.8 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +31%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +16% adjustment (x1.16).
4. Result. 0.8 x 1.16 = 1.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Nate Boerkircher is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 0.6 points, leaning on Nate Boerkircher's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 1.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 6.0 receptions, 77.7 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Bengals across 3 games.
- The Bengals allow 13.8 PPR points to TE1s, +31% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Dalton Schultz (26.0 pts, 12 rec, 140 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.8 vs 7.6; rec 6.0 vs 3.0; yds 77.7 vs 46.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Cade Otton (5.6 pts, 3 rec, 26 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.8 vs 17.9; rec 6.0 vs 7.5; yds 77.7 vs 103.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 3 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.6 to 26.0 (median 9.7).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.