Kevin Coleman Jr.
WR
Miami Dolphins▲ Hot
This is how WRs have played against the Patriots in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| 2 |  PIT | DK Metcalf | 9 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 6.7 |
| 3 |  JAX | Josh Cameron | 2 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 8.2 |
| 4 |  BUF | DJ Moore | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 5 |  LV | Deven Thompkins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 6 |  NYJ | Tim Patrick | 3 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 7 |  CHI | Kalif Raymond | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 8 | MIA | Caleb Douglas | 6 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 8.3 |
| Average | 3.5 | 1.6 | 15.0 | 0.1 | 3.9 | ||
| Median | 2.5 | 1.0 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 2.6 | ||
| High | 9 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 8.3 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Kevin Coleman Jr. should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Kevin Coleman Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Kevin Coleman Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Kevin Coleman Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Kevin Coleman Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Kevin Coleman Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | KC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 4 | MIN | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 5 | CIN | 7 | 3 | 30 | 1 | 12.0 |
| 7 | NYJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 8 | NE | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 13.6 |
| Jr. avg | 3.5 | 1.3 | 13.7 | 0.3 | 4.7 | |
| Patriots WR3 avg | 3.5 | 1.6 | 15.0 | 0.1 | 3.9 | |
| Difference | +0.0 | +0.3 | +1.3 | -0.2 | -0.8 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 12.7 | 0.3 | 5.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Kevin Coleman Jr.Good confidence · 5.7 proj pts1/10 start
- Kevin Coleman Jr. averages 4.7 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 6.1) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Patriots have allowed 3.9 points to WR3s over 8 games (-10% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -7% adjustment.
- Projection: 5.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreKevin Coleman Jr. vs the Patriots
Prediction for Kevin Coleman Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Kevin Coleman Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 5.7 points for Kevin Coleman Jr. if playing as a WR3. Kevin Coleman Jr. has averaged 4.7 over 6 games, and the Patriots have given up 3.9 to WR3s (-10% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Kevin Coleman Jr. scored: Wk 1 0.0, Wk 3 1.3, Wk 4 1.3, Wk 5 12.0, Wk 7 0.0, Wk 8 13.6. Average 4.7; weighted toward recent games it is 6.1.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Patriots allowed 3.9 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is -10%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -7% adjustment (x0.93).
4. Result. 6.1 x 0.93 = 5.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Kevin Coleman Jr. is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.3 points, leaning on Kevin Coleman Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 6.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 1.6 receptions, 15.0 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Patriots across 8 games.
- The Patriots allow 3.9 PPR points to WR3s, -10% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 0 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 8.3 (median 2.6).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 1 of 8 games (13%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.