KC Concepcion
WR
Cleveland Browns▲ Hot
- Quarterback Deshaun Watson is questionable. Watch the status.
- Teammate Denzel Boston (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Harold Fannin Jr. (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Panthers in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Panthers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CHI | Luther Burden III | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 2 |  ATL | Zachariah Branch | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| Average | 3.5 | 3.5 | 38.5 | 0.0 | 6.5 | ||
| Median | 3.5 | 3.5 | 38.5 | 0.0 | 6.5 | ||
| High | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 9.5 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How KC Concepcion should do vs the PanthersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Panthers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game KC Concepcion has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Panthers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot KC Concepcion will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Panthers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus KC Concepcion's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than KC Concepcion usually produces.
Projected is KC Concepcion's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Panthers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 5 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 2 | TB | 6 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 8.2 |
| 3 | CAR | 9 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 4 | PIT | 8 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 11.4 |
| 5 | NYJ | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 6 | BAL | 6 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 7 | TEN | 10 | 8 | 129 | 0 | 23.2 |
| 8 | PIT | 4 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Concepcion avg | 6.1 | 4.1 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 8.7 | |
| Panthers WR2 avg | 3.5 | 3.5 | 38.5 | 0.0 | 6.5 | |
| Difference | -2.6 | -0.6 | -5.5 | +0.0 | -2.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Concepcion averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreKC Concepcion vs the Panthers
Prediction for KC Concepcion
Nobody knows which slot KC Concepcion will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Panthers.
I predict about 7.4 points for KC Concepcion if playing as a WR2. KC Concepcion has averaged 8.0 over 2 games, and the Panthers have given up 6.5 to WR2s (-21% vs the league average of 8.2).
How this projection is built
1. The player. KC Concepcion scored: Wk 1 7.8, Wk 2 8.2. Average 8.0; weighted toward recent games it is 8.0.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Panthers allowed 6.5 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.2, so that is -21%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -8% adjustment (x0.92).
4. Result. 8.0 x 0.92 = 7.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely KC Concepcion is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.4 points, leaning on KC Concepcion's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.5 receptions, 38.5 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Panthers across 2 games.
- The Panthers allow 6.5 PPR points to WR2s, -21% versus the league average of 8.2 (ranked 20 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.4 to 9.5 (median 6.5).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.