Ks vs Jacksonville Jaguars
As of Week 12 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Andre Szmyt | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 4.0 |
| 2 |  DEN | Wil Lutz | 2 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 2 | 9.0 |
| Average | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 35.5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | ||
| Median | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 35.5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | ||
| High | 2 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 2 | 9.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 4.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Joey Slye should do vs the JaguarsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Joey Slye has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Joey Slye will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Joey Slye's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Joey Slye usually produces.
Projected is Joey Slye's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 5.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 2 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 8.0 |
| Slye avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 39.5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | |
| Jaguars K1 avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 35.5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | |
| Difference | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | -4.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | |
| Projected as K1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 35.8 | 1.4 | 6.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Slye averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Joey SlyeMedium confidence · 6.9 proj ptsSit
- Joey Slye averages 6.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 6.7) and has played as the team's K1.
- The Jaguars have allowed 6.5 points to K1s over 2 games (-23% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -9% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 6.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level K scores about 9.5 and a top-tier one about 14.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJoey Slye vs the Jaguars
Prediction for Joey Slye
Nobody knows which slot Joey Slye will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 6.9 points for Joey Slye if playing as a K1. Joey Slye has averaged 6.5 over 2 games, and the Jaguars have given up 6.5 to K1s (-23% vs the league average of 8.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Joey Slye scored: Wk 1 5.0, Wk 2 8.0. Average 6.5; weighted toward recent games it is 7.6.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Jaguars allowed 6.5 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.5, so that is -23%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -9% adjustment (x0.91).
4. Result. 7.6 x 0.91 = 6.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Joey Slye is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (6.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.1 points, leaning on Joey Slye's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 1.5 field goals made, 1.5 field goal attempts and 1.5 extra points against the Jaguars across 2 games.
- The Jaguars allow 6.5 PPR points to K1s, -23% versus the league average of 8.5 (ranked 22 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.0 to 9.0 (median 6.5).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.