QBs vs Dallas Cowboys
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Jaxson Dart | 23 | 29 | 230 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 54 | 0 | 26.6 |
| Average | 23.0 | 29.0 | 230.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 26.6 | ||
| Median | 23.0 | 29.0 | 230.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 26.6 | ||
| High | 23 | 29 | 230 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 54 | 0 | 26.6 | ||
| Low | 23 | 29 | 230 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 54 | 0 | 26.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jayden Daniels should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jayden Daniels has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jayden Daniels will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jayden Daniels's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jayden Daniels usually produces.
Projected is Jayden Daniels's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 18 | 34 | 164 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 17.7 |
| 2 | DAL | 11 | 17 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 14.7 |
| Daniels avg | 14.5 | 25.5 | 130.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 16.2 | |
| Cowboys QB1 avg | 23.0 | 29.0 | 230.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 26.6 | |
| Difference | +8.5 | +3.5 | +100.0 | +1.5 | +0.0 | +5.0 | +4.0 | +0.0 | +10.4 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 16.4 | 28.9 | 147.2 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 56.6 | 0.0 | 19.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Daniels averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jayden DanielsMedium confidence · 17.6 proj ptsOut
- Jayden Daniels averages 16.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 16.0) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Cowboys have allowed 20.7 points to QB1s over 2 games (+22% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +9% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.3) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Out. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 17.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJayden Daniels vs the Cowboys
Prediction for Jayden Daniels
Nobody knows which slot Jayden Daniels will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 19.0 points for Jayden Daniels if playing as a QB1. Jayden Daniels has averaged 17.7 over 1 game, and the Cowboys have given up 26.6 to QB1s (+53% vs the league average of 17.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jayden Daniels scored: Wk 1 17.7. Average 17.7; weighted toward recent games it is 16.8.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Cowboys allowed 26.6 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.4, so that is +53%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +13% adjustment (x1.13).
4. Result. 16.8 x 1.13 = 19.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jayden Daniels is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (19.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.4 points, leaning on Jayden Daniels's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 19.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 230.0 passing yards, 3.0 passing TDs and 54.0 rushing yards against the Cowboys across 1 game.
- The Cowboys allow 26.6 PPR points to QB1s, +53% versus the league average of 17.4 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.